Monday, 1 April 2013

Second Opening Day win in ten years


You know the most gratifying thing about last night was the fans. Yes it was a sell-out, and I don't know how much Texas Rangers fans contributed to that number, but there was a bit of a buzz, an atmosphere. Things went well for the Astros throughout the night, but I was happy for the people sitting in Minute Maid Park cheering themselves hoarse,

David unpicked last night's game so I won't even attempt to, and a nice little piece (h/t to Astros County for the link), profiling some of those who made it to last night's game. There seemed to be a lot of orange in the stands. People have been snapping those new jerseys up (the Astros were in white last night).

Reaction: From general bewilderment from a Texas Rangers perspective, Rob Neyer had some faintly complimentary things to say about the team, but Greg Rajan is particularly unhappy about the unavailability of CSN Houston to a large part of the Astros catchment area. Though I can't believe many fans are moaning about the low payroll, because actually what's there to spend, and why would you spend it? Fixing the team by spending now (getting a few pieces in a few years to add to the new crop of youngsters coming through may be an option) actually isn't an option with the amount of upgrades this team needs. I'm not down about that, I just accept it as fact. Anyway moving on.

This was one of the best opening day performances in a while:

  • in 2012 we lost to the Rockies, 
  • 2011 was Brett Myers' great start and Brandon Lyon's infamous outing against the Phillies, 
  • 2010 saw the Astros start 0-8, 
  • 2009 we lost to the Cubs,
  • in 2008 the Padres' Jake Peavy outdueled Roy Oswalt, 
  • 2007 we got swept by the Pirates to start the season, 
  • 2006 we actually won, Oswalt outlasting Dontrelle Wilis, 
  • then 2005 we got beat by a Chris Carpenter gem and a cheap Crawford Boxes home run by Jim Edmonds.
  • 2004 was the year we lost the first two to the Giants before Roger Clemens gave us our first win of the season in his Astros debut.

That is one Opening Day win in the last nine seasons. Not great. It helps a season massively when you don't end up in in a pit by the end of the first week. Roll on Tuesday.

Sunday, 31 March 2013

It's Opening Day!

It feels like heresy to go through an Opening Day without writing something down. But it's been so long, I struggled to even log into this blog, and failed to get into Twitter. Where did my life go? I find it slightly disconcerting I've had to retire as an amateur baseball writer at 24 (I haven't penned anything coherent on the sport in at least nine months).

And to be fair, I don't even have anything that coherent to say, because most of Spring Training has passed me by. Work, it's a drag. Or rather it's not a drag. It's wonderful. But it sucks up my time, more than you could possibly believe. And it's pretty much like this. Perhaps now the season is started I'll find my way to the keyboard a few times a week to bash out 300 words. Maybe.

A few points from the offseason: Jonathan Singleton, silly boy. I liked the hire of Bo Porter, and couldn't quibble with any of Jeff Luhnow's deals over the winter. Thank god for Wesley Wright. At 28, it's incredible he's still here, considering he never seemed to contribute much, and his ill fated starts in 2010. And now he's counted on to be a leader. Gracious. Carlos Pena at that money probably makes sense. I enjoyed seeing Delino DeShields Jr in some of the top 100 prospect lists. I feel slightly sad to see Brian Bogusevic playing for another team. I wonder when call-ups will start this year, and when fans start calling for them? April 6 too soon?

I'm curious as to what players like Brad Peacock and Matt Dominguez can achieve this year, and I think it'll be interesting to see how our first season in the American League develops, as heartbroken as I was to see us forced out of the National League with the ownership switch.

There's some depth starting to make its way up the system, but it's quite clear that this season the Astros are panning for gold among a lot of their roster. Now the franchise has options. At the moment none of them may be very good options, but it gives them choice, and drives competition for spots. Very soon quality will start arriving, and long may the pipe-line of talent from the minors keep flowing. Because it's been incredibly dry over the past decade.

Ping me any required Astros reading material from the offseason on Twitter and I'll try and digest it over the next 24 hours along with, hopefully an Astros victory against the Rangers tonight.

Sunday, 30 December 2012

Punshing Biggio for part in 'Steroid Era' ludicrous

Statement: Craig Biggio doesn't deserve to be in the Hall of Fame. It makes me fly into a near uncontrollable rage.

Looking at the vitriol that seemed to pour from Ken Rosenthal's piece on this year's Hall of Fame ballot, I was slightly confused at first. Why was there not even a single reference to Craig Biggio? It seemed a funny omission. Rosenthal, at least by his staunchest critics, has been praised for at least giving the reason behind his choices. But omitting Biggio from the entire article just reads like Rosenthal could not even justify his reasoning from leaving him off his ballot.

I don't want this to sound like an ad hominen attack, and its not designed to be so. Usually I admire the writers who disclose their ballots and at least attempt to justify them.

But this first-ballot Hall of Fame thing is bull crap. I don't see the need to denigrate entrants to the Hall of Fame as second class citizens, or the logic behind it. Perhaps it exposes a crack in the thinking of sports writers, who know that by lax criteria letting in people like Bruce Sutter, or questions over use of Performance Enhancing Drugs, leaving players off the first ballot is at least a way of showing who is TRULY worthy of the call first time around, and those who aren't. Writers like Rosenthal who gave Tony Gywnn, Rickey Henderson, and Cal Ripken Jr a free pass are now denying it to everyone else. This is not to compare Biggio to those names previously mentioned, but it merely shows the double standard to which writers are applying to players belonging to a 'dubious period' as Rosenthal calls it.

Do you want to dredge up every single name that belonged to the union that did nothing to drive reform of the game and stamp out PED use? Your going to come up with a damn big list Mr Rosenthal. A big big list. Once again writers are covering for their own mistakes, shamed by the adulation they bestowed on their now-fallen idols.

To leave Craig Biggio off your ballot because he didn't single-handedly spearhead changes to baseball's drug-screening is utterly ludicrous.

Sure Biggio probably won't show his disappointment at not making the hall first time around, but we sure will. But then again, no-one really seems to mind what Houston wants anyway. Poor Biggio, to be subsumed in 'Bonds and co'. It sounds like a dull mid-western construction company.

Wednesday, 26 December 2012

Craig Biggio, a 'Compiler'? Pull the other one

A week or so ago I came to the conclusion that my writing days on baseball were over. I know many people manage full time jobs, and find plenty of time to blog and write to their hearts content. Some even have to raise children as well. In the eight years I've been following the Astros inside out, and the seven odd years I've been writing about them, I've been a man of leisure (somewhat). And now, spending all day ploughing through endless reams of copy, my brain has no space when I get home to even contemplate writing for pleasure. So I had my second baseball sabbatical (I had one towards the end of the 2009 season, resurfacing in 2010).

I didn't check my baseball email, my Twitter, Crawfish Boxes, any Astros website, or this blog. Apart from checking the box score email in the morning I've pretty much blanked it out. We've acquired John Ely and Carlos Pena in recent weeks, have a brand new manager, and are now in the AL West, as well as a new logo.

But now I'm vaguely aware that Hall of Fame season has started, a little niche of the season itself, a month of vitriol, cantankerous old farts peddling antiquated arguments about integrity and playing the game the right way. It's like a parade of buffoonery interspersed with the rankest sort of hypocrisy. Every year we see new arguments popping up, but actually they are the old ones disguised as new ones, or the old ones skewed or distorted.

One that caught my eye was the accusation that Craig Biggio was a compiler. True, he played far past his peak, and in an era of mashers some of his numbers at first glance may not stack up to others around him.

And it's interesting that the same writers who argue that players from the 90s with huge numbers are under the cloud of suspicion for using Performance Enhancing Drugs (PEDs) then decry Biggio for not amassing similarly spectacular numbers.

Even if you buy the compiler gibe, as I don't, Biggio was nine home runs shy of 300 HR, 300 steals and 3,000 hits, a feat accomplished by Willy Mays (h/t to Elephande). His 50 steals, 50 doubles and 20 home runs in 1998 is a feat un-matched, and Tris Speaker is the only other player to have 50 steals and 50 doubles in one year (1912).

A cursory glance shows that the most comparable player on B-REF is Robin Yount, and while defensively a grade above Biggio, he put up a career .772 OPS while retiring at 37, compared to Biggio's .792 at 41. Tom Verducci made the same point around a month ago.

The case for Craig Biggio is spell-blindingly simple. He's Craig Biggio. There's simply no career trajectory that really compares to his. He had all round skills, speed, power, patience, and he did it at every position he was asked to play. Even when the prestige of being an all-star has rapidly diminished over the years, he's still the only player to make it as a catcher and a second baseman. He moved to left and even center field to accommodate Jeff Kent, even though he was below average at both.

He and Kent are probably the last wave of second baseman, when it was considered a defensive position. Later you had Alfonso Soriano and Chase Utley demonstrating that this was no longer the case. Before Kent and Biggio you had Joe Morgan, Ryne Sandberg, and a handful of others.

What about integrity? How Biggio played the game? Well this might seem a bit hokey in 2012, but Biggio's sportsmanship is demonstrated through one of my favourite anecdotes. Bottom of the ninth, a run down against Billy Wagner. It's 2005 and the Astros are facing the Phillies in the middle of a dog fight for the NL Wild Card. Wagner hangs a slider and Biggio crushes it for a three-run homer. Biggio hares around the bases and doesn't celebrate a crucial home run, so as not to show up his former teammate.

Bidge got the call to the majors in 1988, to a Houston team that has Nolan Ryan, Mike Scott, Jim DeShaies in their rotation. The old hands pitch up their chairs clubhouse in a circle in the clubhouse and chat pitching. They probably wouldn't have let the rookie backup catcher into the circle, but every day Biggio would pitch his chair outside the circle, say nothing, but listen intently to what his elders had to say.

Cherry pick the best 12 years of his career, 1993-2004 and his all round numbers are easily good enough to say he was at the top of the game for a decade (usually the default acid-test for some HOF voters). His 1997 annus mirabilis, where he went all 162 games without grounding into a single double play, 47 steals, a .916 OPS, and a handsome .401 wOBA, is one of the best all-round single-seasons by anybody.

He was one of the most durable players of his generation, with just one DL stint, and that was after he was spiked by Preston Wilson trying to turn a doube play, when the latter played for Florida.

What about the cons? Well, Minute Maid Park certainly helped his HR numbers later in his career, but this is more than balanced out by the years he spent in the Astrodome, reaching 20 HRs a season in four separate years there (in those seasons he hit far more HR away from home than he did at the Dome, apart from 1998 where he had 10-a-piece home and away). Defensively sabermetrics are not particularly kind to him, even with all the gold gloves.

As I said earlier, there's just no need to go into that much depth. There's no-one like Biggio before, and there may never be a player like him again. The Hall of Fame will be all the better for having his boyish grin and dirty helmet in it.


Saturday, 12 May 2012

George Springer's big night

This is going to get a lot of use this season.
A brilliant 1-0 win against the Pirates last night, coupled with a four home run performance from George Springer in a Lancaster double header was great to see.

His numbers are obviously a little buttressed by last night's game, but stats wise he's where you'd like him to be adjusting to A+ in his first proper season in pro ball. Should these sort of performances necessitate a callup to AA Corpus Christi? Hmmm...probably not, although I'm a little conservative with callups.

Bud Norris bringing his A game
The win against the Pirates was a great response after another brutal series against the Marlins, including another crushing extra innings loss (that makes three against just the Marlins in 2012).

Bud Norris has now pitched three excellent starts in a row, getting out of the sixth inning unscathed and clamping down in the fourth with a man on third base early in the inning. Norris has now gone two starts without allowing an earned run, and the start before that held the Mets scoreless for six before allowing three runs in the seventh inning.

The rest of the Pirates series
Outside of Wandy Rodriguez we need to get these sort of pitching performances on a regular basis to be a competitive club. If you're only getting excellent starts two days out of five, a mediocre offense is going to struggle to bail out starting pitchers three days out of five.

I don't fancy J.A. Happ's chances against Charlie Morton tonight, but Wandy may have the edge on A.J. Burnett Sunday, since the ex-Yankee has had four rough starts. Be warned though, his K/9 is 10.9, so the Astros have to take advantage of hitters counts.

The Pirates, who entered the game level with the Astros in the NL Central, have the fifth lowest ERA in the NL, but have so far struggled to score runs, ranking dead last in walks and runs in the league.

Fifth-starter's spot
The schedule is currently being kind to the Astros in regard to the fifth-starter's spot, meaning that slot will not come up till Tuesday again, with both Aneury Rodriguez and Jordan Lyles having good starts in recent weeks. But Rodriguez, who was sent back down to the minors following his start, will not be eligible for Tuesday since he has to spend 10 days in the minors before being recalled. Lyles pitched on Thursday night, so you would figure he would get the call, although I would not assume anything with this club anymore. Hell they might let Brandon Lyon try his hand as a starter.

Other quick notes
The Astros bullpen have gotten themselves a name "The Regulators" and have had a solid few weeks. Brett Myers now has 9 saves and has allowed a solitary run all season long, even if he has just seven strikeouts.

What's the best way to handle a slumping J.D. Martinez? According to Brad Mills its to pull him from the lineup and give him a few days off. I'm cool with that. Give him a chance to rest, look at some videos, relax and let him get back into the zone, rather than throwing him to the dogs.

Back to the minors very quickly. Delino DeShields Jr has 20 steals so far and at this pace he could end up with 70/80. He will turn 20 in August and is drawing a ton of walks. Here's hoping his bat will come around in the next few months.

Monday, 7 May 2012

You can't win 'em all folks

Well this was an extremely frustrating game of baseball, but the gulf in pitching ability between Adam Wainwright and J.A. Happ was clear for all to see. Happ was all over the plate, and as Sean Feist pointed out on Twitter, Happ is running scared on the inside portion of the plate to right handers. He just cannot establish the inside part of the plate and can't jam hitters.

Obviously coming into this game considering Wainwright has been rusty having missed all of 2011 fans were looking for a sweep. Now he's 10-1 against the Astros with a 1.93 ERA in 93 1/3 innings, in 18 games and 12 starts. And the Cardinals are a pretty darned good team, considering their playing without Chris Carpenter and Lance Berkman at the moment. The Astros hit so many weak groundballs it is a miracle they grounded into only two double plays. All eight of their hits were singles and only Travis Buck drew a walk.

Still, we reset and try our best for the Marlins series, sending Wandy Rodriguez to the hill tonight. Jarred Cosart will make his spot-start for the Redhawks tonight, while Mike Foltynewicz will go for the Legends, so plenty to watch. The Astros will face a tough trio in Carlos Zambrano, Anibal Sanchez and Josh Johnson. Bags of talent, and very unpredictable.

Jack Armstrong Jr has Tommy John
Well, we knew Armstrong was a punt in the long grass and a risky draft. He's now out for this season and probably most of 2013, undergoing Tommy John surgery two weeks ago. Vincent Velasquez has yet to materialise, and will likely start in short season ball (or so we can hope), but at least he was drafted out of high school. Tropeano and Folty's success in Lexington soothes not having the two aforementioned playing at the moment, but they are two arms I was really high on when healthy.

With Ross Seaton going the way of the dodo and Tanner Bushue not far on his heels, we'll get into another situation when Lyles, Keuchel, Oberholtzer, Clemens, Cosart and co. graduate where we have little pitching depth in the organisation. Behind that you're panning for gold with Ruben Alaniz, Kyle Hallock and Adrian Houser.

Trade Candidates
Ken Rosenthal is talking about the Astros, bless him:


“Our objective is to aggregate as much talent as possible, as quickly as possible,” new general manager Jeff Luhnow told me last week, at the start of what became a 5-1 homestand against the New York Mets and Cardinals.
“If we have pieces on our club that are in demand by other clubs and we get enough future value for them to make up for the short-term loss, we’ll consider every opportunity.”

Brandon Lyon is mentioned alongside Myers, Rodriguez and Lee. If Luhnow can shift Lyon he should be given the Congressional Medal of Honour. Well, Ed Wade did get something of value in return for Pedro Feliz so perhaps anything is possible.

Sunday, 6 May 2012

Lose-Town? This is Win-Town

Does winning engender a positive attitude, or does a positive attitude lead to winning. It's one of those chicken egg, egg chicken things. Andy talked about the 4-1 comeback against the Marlins as evidence that this team is different from that of 2011.

Their winning a lot more. They've reeled off five straight wins, two against the defending champions, raising their W-L record to 13-14. A sweep would take them to just two games behind the Cardinals.

Having played exactly a sixth of the season, they are already nearly a quarter of a way to their win total for 2011.

Bashing Brad Mills
One other point Andy raises, is it right to constantly second guess Brad Mills? I recall writing a post on TCB towards the tail end of 2010 saying that Mills deserved consideration for manager of the year considering what he had achieved with what he had. By the same token I gave him a fair blasting through most of the 2011 season. I do feel Mills sometimes reverts to the book when he's not quite sure what to do. As much of a shellacking as we gave him last season we have to praise him for revving the players up for 2012.

Still, second guessing managers is half the fun of the sport and I won't stop doing it, albeit using some statistical backing whenever I argue my point.

Making trades
Another thing I do agree with Andy is that I would like to see the Astros win as many games as possible. But unlike last year and the year before making trades may not mean we are automatically weakened. Just look at the Mark Melancon Jed Lowrie and Kyle Weiland deal. Not only has Lowrie been a great addition (even over Barmes at SS), but pushing Brett Myers over to the closer's role has worked spectacularly well.

Melancon meanwhile has been kicked down to AAA after surrendering 11 earned runs in 2 innings of work for the Red Sox. In nice symmetry, he's throw 6 2/3 scoreless at Pawtucket, since removed from the melting cauldron that is Boston. Go figure. Humberto Quintero has cooled off for the Royals after his scorching first week and Jason Bourgeois is already in the minors.

Still, if someone makes you an offer you can't refuse for Brett Myers or Wandy Rodriguez, you have to take it don't you? Whether Paul Clemens or Dallas Keuchel can fill the immediate void straight away is very questionable, considering Rodriguez's early results. We've talked in the past about how dangerous it is to limit yourself to acquiring major-league ready talent in any prospective deal, but the fans need something to cling onto in the here and now, a reason to show up in the ballpark. If you show them you're a .500 team in the early season and then start getting rid of major pieces in July, you risk jeopardizing all the marketing you've put into getting fans back in the park. Still, the Astros have to make the right decisions for the future of the franchise, and I believe Jeff Luhnow has the nouse to get those decisions correct.

There are so many closers either getting pulled out of their roles or injured (Heath Bell being the latest in Miami), I'd have to assume GMs come calling for Myers sooner rather than later.

Austin Wates, left field?
I notice that Wates, who played most of his games in CF last season, and a moderate chunk in LF then RF, has played 19 of his 27 games in left field in 2012 (4 he has DH'ed). Is this an admission that J.D. Martinez is going to be spending the majority of his time DHing from 2013 onwards with his creaky knees?

Run differential
The Astros have now outscored opponents on the season by 21 runs through 27 games.