Astros Level Series Against Reds' Bench

Who the hell are these guys?

No not Johnny Bench, the bench. A night after clinching a playoff berth, the Reds and Dusty Baker decided to rest all of their lineup regulars, and duly dropped last night's game 2-0, despite a decent performance by Johnny Cueto. Meanwhile in closing out his 20th save of the season Brandon Lyon and his team-mate Matt Lindstrom became only the fifth pair of major leaguers to have 20 saves on the same team (and the first since 1992 to accomplish it when Rob Dibble and Norm Charlton did it for the Reds in 1992). And after a recent run of average showings, Nelson Figueroa will be happy with the 6 2/3 scoreless innings he twirled last night, putting forward a strong case for inclusion in next year's roster. He was certainly helped by some strong defense and a throw that was on the money from Jason Castro to catch Juan Francisco stealing in the sixth, and some other good defensive plays.

Though last night's win was probably a welcome gimme, even if some Astros fans are actually hoping that they slip down the rankings to give themselves a better draft pick in next year's first round. Having won just once in the previous seven days the Astros will send Brett Myers to face Bronson Arroyo tonight, with the hope of clinching their second series win against the Reds, before heading home to face the Cubs in the final series of the season. Arroyo is 2-0 against Houston with a 2.13 ERA in two starts.

Currently the Astros have the joint ninth worst record in the majors, level with the Milwaukee Brewers at 75-83, realistically this is not going to change. The Cubs would need to sweep the Astros to overtake them, and the Astros would need to sweep the Cubs, and have Oakland, the Mets and the Marlins lose their four remaining games (they all have 77-81 records). Next year's draft is said to be very deep, so we should stop worrying about it too much (the D-backs have the 6B pick after not signing Barret Loux this year).

Carlos Lee went 3-4, on eight pitches, and this makes me believe he's lost the correct approach at the batters box. Getting hits of course is paramount, but I get the increasing feeling that Lee can either go up there looking to walk or he can go up there looking to get a hit, but not both at the same time. Once again the Astros failed in the walks department, not drawing a single one, and scoring their two runs on a Carlos Lee double in the first, scoring Keppinger, before they scored a run on a Wallace force-out, which should have either been a double play, or the runner should have been nailed at the plate. But hesitation by second baseman Chris Valaika allowed Lee to scoot home, with Wallace picking up a pretty un-merited RBI.

The Cincinnati Reds: Suddenly Very Good

The Reds clinched their first playoff berth since 1995 Enquirer/Gary Landers

You have to hand it to the Reds even if it sticks in your throat. They have done a fantastic job this season and I am happy for them. Happy that for the first time in Donkey's years neither the Cubs nor the Cardinals will go to the postseason. For the first time since 1995 the Reds will head to the playoffs. That year they were swept by the Braves, who took the WS 4-2 off the Cleveland Indians.

While some have suggested the NL Central will be a weak division in 2011, and the Astros have done very well within their division, taking at least 10 games from the Pirates, Cubs and Cardinals, they've played the Brewers about evens, and have just four wins from the Reds.

Baseball Writer Who Does Not Watch the Astros #27

I give you Steve Henson of Yahoo MLB. While it is great that he has included Chris Johnson at third base, it is equally ridiculous that he has put Aroldis Chapman in the bullpen of his all-rookie team in 2010. Yeah, he can throw 100 mph, but he has also pitched 10 2/3 innings, or rather 32 outs. You know f*** guys like Wilton Lopez who pitched all year for their teams, they play for rubbish teams like the Astros and don't really count. Chapman throws lazers to home plate, and more importantly he plays for an October bound team. Never forget that.

Some interesting Ed Wade comments via Zachary Levine. Whereas I would like Ed to try and dip into the trade market for a SS, Mills seems content with the job Angel Sanchez has done since joining the team. Pretty sparse posting over the Pirates series, but expect a post after each of our last six games, and some more content throughout October.  If you didn't catch my TCB piece from yesterday, swing by and give it a read.
Meanwhile, FanGraphs has finally caught wind of Carlos Lee playing first base, and discusses it.

Oswalt Exhibiting his First Rate Talent on a New Stage

Dumb asses

I think the thing that angered me the most about the entire Roy Oswalt saga in July, was not Oswalt's increasingly bizarre demands to have his 2012 option picked up, but the fact that most in the baseball business seemed to have downgraded Oswalt to an above average pitcher rather than the ace he still was. These sorts of pieces from baseball snobs, showed they did not have a clue what they were talking about.

"Oswalt isn't the workhorse he used to be," David Cameron wrote on the day after the trade. "On an inning by inning basis he is still one of the better pitchers in baseball. After years of decline, he's actually posting his highest strikeout rate since his rookie year." This seems indicative of most people's thinking on Oswalt, that 2009 was the beginning of the end for him as a frontline starter.

Joe Pawilowski said of Oswalt "By himself Oswalt is a valuable player, a no.2 pitcher who has been an ace in the past."

Velasquez has Tommy-John surgery

Myers tanks, but still wins

Despite having a howler, by his own admission, Brett Myers still got his 14th victory of the season, seeing off the Brewers 10-7, in a topsy turvy contest. It was one of his worst outings of the season, considerable if you look who it was against, the now 100 loss Pittsburgh Pirates. Still, the Astros are 7-2 in his last 9 starts, and he has not lost a game since 7 August. Houston's record against the Pirates now stands at 11-2.

Last night was a classic offensive performance, just when we had faltered in our last three games. Apart from Lee, who got an oh-so brilliant 0-4, the rest of the lineup did their parts. The table setters Bourgeois and Sanchez had a combined pitch count of 55, scoring two runs a-piece. Pence hit a key 2-run double, and is a good development considering his injury this week, Keppinger was 3-4 in the 5 slot of the lineup, and Johnson, Quintero and Wallace all had hits (even Myers was 1-1 with two sacrifices). I like Bourgeois' and the attitude he has brought to the club with him and I would like to see him occupy a spot on our bench next year as he has great speed, and he hasn't shown amazing contact or power, but he has 13 walks.

Myers didn't do too badly in getting to six innings considering he said after the game that he pretty much had nothing on the evening. I always love those performances by pitchers when they battle on, even though they have very little in the way of command. The Rocket was always one for those, as you could tell when his stuff was not on, but he battled through it.

Now It's Getting Old, Third Lead Blown in a Row

Nelson's flag was flying about half-mast yesterday.

Got Loux? The Astros are having a second look at Barret Loux, and while I am mad keen on getting him locked up, who knows what the front office is thinking on this one. He's a first round talent, or he would not have been drafted so high. I'm repeating myself, but what the heck. We do not know how bad his 'injuries' are, but I see it as a gamble. A haul of Foltynewicz, Velazquez and Loux would be a great haul for 2010.

Onto less pleasant things, namely last night's game. If you wanted a dampener put on next year's expectations, you can consider the last three games a pretty effective one. Three leads in three games, three blown leads, and three losses.

Figueroa started off well, like he has done in previous starts, then hit a massive brick wall. Considering this has happened a couple of times, I wonder if Mills shouldn't have been looking to pull Figgy as soon as he ran into trouble in the sixth inning. Still, the Natonals did a pretty good job of jumping on any opportunities that came their way, and Danny Espinosa looks like an exceptional talent. Mike Morse a good game, going 2-3 with a home run, a double, and a HBP.

Coming to a ballpark near you

Astros blow lead for second straight game

Danny Espinosa (pictured) made Fulchino pay

Well, there goes the Astros shot at making .500 this season. Two games they should have won, and they blow both of them. This time, Jeff Fulchino coughed up a Danny Espinosa 2-run shot after Wandy Rodriguez had pitched himself in line for the victory. The Astros had been struggling for runs off Jason Marquis, which is ridiculous in itself, since he came into the game with an ERA above seven.

Angel Sanchez had put the Astros up with a bases-loaded single off Tyler Clippard, who has 10 blown saves on the year, but 11 victories after last night. Jason Bourgeois swiped two bases after having been caught stealing third last night. Lee got caught out on a boneheaded play where Johnson flew out to center, and Lee, on first, left the base too early trying to take second on the throw. Hunter Pence will be in the lineup tonight when the Astros play the series finale, aiming to level up the four-game set, a set they really should be 3-0 up in.

Now six games shy of .500, when they could have been two games under, they have to go 8-2 in their last 10 games to reach .500. They play the Pirates next, before the Reds at GABP and then the Cubs at home. If they won tonight's game, then swept the Pirates, then took two out of three against the Reds (not easy), then they would need two out of three against the Cubs (something they have done everytime they have played Chicago this year).

Season Re-cap Part I

Over the next twelve days the season will start to round down, and we start by re-capping the season in its entirety, before breaking down the club's components.. Today's re-cap looks at the Astros first eighteen games of the season and what we can pin down about the Astros' horrific start to 2010. 

'Oh call back yesterday, bid time return.' 

TCBers were cautiously optimistic, citing the fact that there "are reasons to be optimistic about 2010, but it would take a lot of things going right for Houston to contend." Lance Berkman starting the season on the DL was an early blow. Stephen Higdon bemoaned the loss of the first baseman saying that "not only would the ordering of the lineup be more conducive to run production, but I think the lineup would have its' mojo too."

Without Berkman, the Astros scored 14 runs in their first eight games dropping all of them. On the only day they scored enough runs to actually win a game, new acquisition Brandon Lyon blew a 5-4 lead against the Phillies.

With the early season, you draw your #1 pitcher against their #1 pitcher, and in that scenario, the Astros got burned badly. Roy Oswalt was outdueled by Tim Lincecum, and then Roy Halladay. Barry Zito was better than Wandy Rodriguez, Matt Cain better than Brett Myers (who allowed 12 hits in his first six innings as an Astro), Happ better than Norris (who departed early from his start, and the mopping up crew had mops with no heads). Wilton Lopez got creamed in his first appearance after Sammy Gervacio went to the DL.

Carlos Lee: God Help us All

The Astros looked comofrtable at 3-0, but blew it in 8th inning

I don't know what incensed me more last night: the Nationals scoring seven runs in the eighth inning, or the pre-game debate over Carlos Lee's future with this ballclub.

You know, I'm not sure what Richard Justice is high on, but whatever it is, I would like some of it. Firstly, he couches Lee's performance purely in terms of batting average (clever dick), then he suggests that a lineup containing Chris Johnson, Hunter Pence and Carlos Lee is 'formidable.'
His exact quote was:

A lineup with Chris Johnson, Hunter Pence and Carlos Lee has a chance to be pretty darn good. 

You know, sometimes I wonder why I bother. And don't get me started on the comments. Ed Wade has spent the bulk of his time fixing the Astros, and most of his problem was ridding the team of several bulky contracts. Now he has nearly finished that job, what do Astros fans want him to do? Sign some more massive contracts! Carl Crawford yeah, let's sign him. He's fast, and he hits well, and has some power. Him, Pence and Bourn would be a great outfield. Jeebus.

Let us just shoot down these rumours straight away. Regardless of what the Boston Herald seems to think, Wade is not going to do anything stupid and try and sign Crawford or Jayson Werth. The first and major problem with Werth, is that he is now a Scott Boras client. You know that guy, who everyone in Houston thinks is the Devil? Crawford will sign for silly money somewhere, and can probably expect the sort of deal Alfonso Soriano got with the Cubs. However, he is 28 already, and his legs will start to give way towards the end of a possible six-year deal. He's a great asset for a team, but he is hardly the sort of impact bat you could slot into your four spot in the lineup. He'll hit for some power, he'll swipe a lot of bases and stretch out a few triples, and he gets on-base a fair amount of time.

Now back onto Lee. If this was the plan from the beginning, then I would rather we tried to acquire a left fielder rather than a first baseman in Wallace two months ago. Then this would have all made sense. But the idea that Lee could be our everyday first baseman and Wallace spends 2011 in Triple-A is the biggest pile of bogus I've ever heard.

Ok. Basically we are liable for $39m, or something like that for Lee over the next two years. Is this made more bearable by him being on the field ****ing this team up for another two years, or do you have to say enough is enough and bench the guy, or at least platoon him in left? Now our friend in Portland Oregon was trying to argue the plus side of such a move, and maybe he believed it, or maybe he was playing devil's advocate, so I'll sum up his argument for you.
1. say that team is Padres level competitive next year, Lee might revert back to 08/09 form, and that might be the difference between playoffs and not.
2. another year is not going to adversely affect Wallace, and he can be called up at any time if the Astros are not competitive.
3. Lee showing he can play solid 1B might give the Astros a chance to trade him.
Now I understand that. I don't believe it. I don't think he did either. But perhaps there is a method in some of this madness. But its still madness.

Whatever Justice thinks, I believe we are still a good two pieces away from being ready offensively to compete. The only way our offense will be half decent in the years to come is if we allow our young players to develop, not bailing on them after 200 at bats. Give Castro, Johnson, Wallace and co. the time to develop, and they all could be above average run producers. Sticking Walace back at AAA will knock him back. He has NOTHING left to prove at AAA having spent the large majority of 2009 and 2010 at that level (201 games at AAA level in three organisations).

I like Bogusevic, Bourgeois and Jason Michaels each in their own ways, but they are all replacement outfielders. Sticking any of them in left field permanently, and giving Lee the 1B job would be plain dumb. So this would be our 2011 lineup: Bourn, Keppinger, Pence, Lee, Johnson, Manzella, Castro, Bourgeois, pitcher. Now they're gonna score a hat-full of runs! Maybe I'm being harsh on Bogey, but I don't see him as anything else than a AAAA player, despite the solid numbers he has put up at AAA. He might be a serviceable 2 hitter, but he strikes out a ton, even if he steals a good amount of bases and draws a decent amount of walks. For left field, I'm waiting for J.D. Martinez, possibly a September callup next year.

Alyson Footer spins it well, but there is no getting away from the dumb ass logic behind it. Crawfish Boxes has its own spin on the matter. As well as we have played, I do not think we have enough offense to properly compete over 162 games in 2011, and even if we did, I don't see how Lee can be a difference maker in any of it. Read the comments on Footer's posts, especially ones from Lucas and OremLK. There is not much point in paraphrasing everything, but one commenter says 'the popular opinion is that Lee's season has been a disaster. But I think that's a misconception born out of the bad start he had on the season.' No, it has been a disaster. He'll have the odd decent game, but too often that 0-4 leaves a gaping hole in the middle of our lineup.

The sooner he is off this ballclub, whatever money we're paying him, the better. Blocking the development of other players only compounds the mistake. Lee's all-star days are long gone.

As for last night's game, it was a difficult loss to swallow considering Happ had a no-hitter going till the fifth, and held the Nationals scoreless for his six innings of work. Still, after scoring seven runs in a single inning the night before, the Nationals did exactly that to the Astros. Just one of them darned days, and you move on. If the Astros want to get to .500, they will have to win the next two games, and have Rodriguez and Figueroa pitching the next two games. Not going to be easy with Pence joining Bourn on the day-to-day casualty list. The right fielder has a sore right flexor hip muscle.

How Things Have Changed

Norris had a good enough start supported by two home runs

When the Nationals thumped the Astros 14-4 on May 31st, a game in which Roy Oswalt pitched in, they slumped to 17-34, while the Nationals drew even at 26-26. The Astros went on to take the next three games, and after an average June, did not stop chugging. Including last night's game, the Astros are 56-43 after that point, the Nationals meanwhile are 36-62, and have gone a long way south.

Houston scored seven runs in the fifth inning, a season high. Not only have they failed to score that many in an inning, 133 of their previous 149 games had seen they score less than seven in the entire game. Meanwhile they have only managed eight runs or more 10 times this season.

And last night they achieved it with a mish-mash lineup, and without Michael Bourn. Bud Norris allowed two runs in the first, while the Astros got one of them back in the third on a bunt by Norris, which got Brian Bogusevic home. Then came the offensive explosion. Johnson doubled, before Bogusevic grounded to first baseman Adam Dunn, who checked Johnson going to third, but then dallied too long, and then tossed the ball behind covering pitcher Livan Hernandez allowing CJ to score. Quintero then homered, before Norris reached on a flyball Willie Harris really should have caught.Keppinger then drove in Norris before Lee reached, and then both scored on a Blum 3-run shot. Bizarre.

A large part of the inning was down to incompetence on the part of the Nationals, but it was nice to see Blum and Quintero hit home runs. Bud Norris did a good job after a rocky first inning, although I'm still not sure what to expect of the guy next year. Basically, it will be him and Paulino as the number four and five starters as in 2010, but they have the potential to be very good back end starters, and although we can set too much store in saying 'oh well he's a number 2, and he's a number 3 guy,' I think Norris has 2/3 type stuff, but he has not acquired the makeup of a solid pitcher yet. The dude is only 25, and we drafted him in 2006, so there is still some improvement left in him. He just needs some refining.

I was just perusing his stats, and FanGraphs have his WAR at 1.7, wheras B-R have it at -0.6. I am not quite sure what is responsible for that shift. His ERA might be higher than his 2009 ERA, but his FIP (4.13) and xFIP (4.09) are quite a bit down, suggesting he might have been a tad unlucky this year. His ground ball rate is up, while his HR/FB ratio is down.

I think we have seen a maturation of Norris over his last dozen starts, as Brad Arnsberg, our pitching coach has started to get him on the right path. Last night meant that the Astros have now won 10 of his last 11 starts. Not all of those starts have been great, he had two rough ones against the Mes and Diamondbacks, and two average ones against the Cardinals and Braves (but the Astros scored 18 and 10 runs respectively in those two games). Still he has a 3.52 ERA over those 11 starts, and anywhere near that over the course of the 2011 period would be easily enough for the ballclub. His season 1.45 WHIP will have to come down, as will his BB/9 which is 4.22 (ouch). Still that is matched by the fact he is striking out on average more than one batter an inning (K/9 is 9.2). I am confident we can go into 2011 with a very good rotation.

Still no news on Barret Loux, the Arizona Diamondbacks pick released to free agency. I obviously have not seen the medical records, but if there are no red flags I would love to see Ed Wade and Bobby Heck take a punt on it. They took a $5m punt on Pedro Feliz, I don't see why they shouldn't do the same for a guy with Loux's ceiling, even if he has been injured. I'm sure good ol' Drayton will stump up some cash, considering how much we have coming off the books, and since we are not likely to add to the payroll next year (apart from arbitration raises, which will be hefty in Pence, Bourn and Rodriguez's cases). He's a local product, which Drayton likes, but there were 14 other teams watching his bullpen session, so there will be competition for his signature. The Astros had their South Texas area Scout Rusty Pendergrass watching the session.

So far the Astros are in line with my .500 prediction. I had them to win 2/3 against Milwaukee, and 2/3 against the Reds. I also had them to win 3/4 against the Nationals. Lets see if that comes to pass. J.A. Happ pitches for Houston tonight.

I'll be adding some mini-features in the next few days summing up the Astros 2010 season, and the future of the ballclub, building up to the end of the season.

Redhawks Announcement

Alyson Footer tweets that the Astros have agreed a deal with the Oklahoma City RedHawks to become their new Triple-A affiliate. This has been expected for a couple of days, after inevitably losing Round Rock to the Rangers. The RedHawks ballpark AT&T Bricktown Ballpark is new and spangly, and they should be an adequate replacement.

More to folow

Astros finally solve Reds (well just about)

CJ 2-3 with a double, a home run and 2R

Brett Myers, fantastic again. Our bullpen, not so fantastic. The Astros got there in the end, giving them their first series win against the Reds all season. Following on from Dave Bush's strange start in the last series, Travis Wood was perfect through three, before the Astros got three runs on the board in the fifth.

Quintero's single to left probably shouldn't have scored two runs, but the laggardly fielding in left allowed Johnson and Michaels to score. Quintero tried to go to second on the play, and made it, even though Ramon Heranndez, the Reds catcher cut the ball off. His throw sailed into centre field, allowing Q to skate on into third. Then Myers shallow fly to centre was played horribly by Stubbs. 3-0 and they were looking good for the win, but Chris Johnson's solo shot, which barely made it over the wall and into the Crawford Boxes (I nearly called them the Crawfish Boxes), proved vital.

Fragilities seem to be appearing in our bullpen of late, and it was Lindstrom, in to relieve Myers after seven shutout innings who coughed up three Cincinnati runs. Brandon Lyon then had his troubles in the ninth, before coaxing a Joey Votto fly-out to end the game.

It is great to see the offense scoring runs without Lee or Pence (they may have to do so without Bourn, who strained an oblique muscle in the game), as Quintero and Johnson provided most of the offensive support for Myers. But I worry considering we are 19-8, but have scored only 3.7 runs a game in those 27 games.

Pence has officially cooled down after his player of the week award, although compared to what Tulo has done in Colorado after the last two weeks, it almost seems like a slump in itself.

And as for Lee, who has bestirred himself in the last few games, where do I begin? Or have I exhausted every measurement for how bad he is. Well, lets look at the other left fielders with the plate appearances to qualify. Considering there are only seven in the NL tells me that a lot of teams platoon the position, and the names on there: Carlos Gonzalez, Matt Holliday and Ryan Braun, are putting up elite level offensive numbers. Aubrey Huff has had a very nice year with the Giants, but he has had more starts at first base than either of the two corner outfield positions. There are some conflict in his stats though. Lee's WPA (win probability added) is a respectable 1.47, while all his offensive stats are way up with RISP compared to the bases empty. Meanwhile he has a .944 OPS as a first baseman (but this is mostly because he plays first against lefties, whom he bats well against, and the sample size is small). I just want him the hell out of the number 4 spot in the lineup. His inconsistency and low OBP is hurting our run production for him to be in that spot.

Myers meanwhile has been pegged with just one loss in his last 15 starts, having a 1.89 ERA over that span, a total of 104 2/3 innings pitched. His FIP (3.33) and xFIP (3.72) for the season are much lower than his previous career totals, and he's only walked 21 batters in those last 15 starts and allowed only five home runs. He also ran his record at MMP in 2010 to 8-0 with a 2.01 ERA in 14 starts, allowing just four home runs.  His gamescore last night was 69, if anyone was wondering.

Finally, getting onto the piece I really want to talk about, someone has already picked the Houston Astros to win the NL Central in 2011. Boy, I wish I was that optimistic (tabs to Astros County for the link). It is a good summation of how our season has gone, and as great as the past two/three months have gone, I still think our run production needs to get far better if we will want to match the Cardinals or Reds (the Brewers have a lot of payroll off the books, and I don't know what sort of prospects they have on the way, and they have scored a lot of runs. If they can sort out their pitching, they will be far better in 2011). 3.7 runs a game will not cut it, however good your starting pitching is.

And don't expect ZIPS to have Rodriguez, Happ and Myers numbers anywhere near to what they've done in the last two months. If we could somehow get rid of Lee, replace him with something good, then get a good bat at short, then we might have a shout. We will need huge contributions from Wallace, Castro and Johnson, and solid years from just about everyone else.

Lets not forget how bad offensively this team is. It is on pace to have the worst ISO (.116) in the NL since the 1993 Marlins and ranks dead last or second last in these offensive categories in the NL: runs, hits, doubles, home runs, walks, strikeouts, average, OBP, SLG%, total bases, HBP, sac flys. Perhaps I should have listed the categories they aren't last in.

Still, they've been far better without dropouts Feliz and Matsui in the lineup. Before the first major wave of callups they scored 3.4 runs a game (26-44), and after 4.2 runs a game (46-33).

Bud Norris starts for the Astros tonight against Washington and Livan Hernandez. The Astros are 9-1 in Norris' last 10 starts, during which time he has a serviceable 3.62 ERA, although he has given up nine home runs.

Sanchez, Stellar Defense Gives Astros Hard-Fought Win

Great 'D' helped the Astros to beat Reds 5-3

These are the sorts of wins that make me truly excited about 2011. The consensus will surely be that the Astros are a starting pitcher, an impact bat and possibly another very good bat away from contention, but without the means to get those in the offseason, they will have to make do with what they have got. And what they've got has done them proud over the past three and a half months.

In his re-cap Brian McTaggart described yesterday's ballgame as characterising 'the kind of crisp baseball that's become their brand the past two months.' Considering the Astros had a 2-7 record against the Reds this season, and were shutdown the last time they faced Jonny Cueto, last night's 5-3 win was a shot in the arm for the rest of the series.

Nelson Figueroa will take on Bronson Arroyo tonight before Brett Myers faces Travis Wood. They should win at least one of those games. Good to see people are still taking an interest in the NL Central, as Jack Clark is obviously not happy with the Redbirds for throwing in the towel with two and a half weeks of the season to go. The Reds will not cave to the Astros in the five remaining games, as their 6 game lead might seem like a lot, but they are 6-10 in September, which included a brutal four game sweep by the Rockies, officially as hot as the sun. Troy Tulowitzki's numbers over the past two weeks are ridiculous. In the past 14 games he has 12 home runs, one every 5 plate appearances, slugging 1.089 in that stretch. He and Carlos Gonzalez are fearsome right now.

Anyway back to last night's game. It was hard-nosed gaming by the Astros, with two superb plays late in the game, one from Jason Bourgeois and one from Hunter Pence, both diving catches in the outfield.

Carlos Lee tied the game at 3 with a solo shot off Cueto, while Angel Sanchez came up with the 2-run single off Aroldis Chapman, the 103mph flame-throwing rookie. Wandy Rodriguez threw hot and cold, striking out 10, but also walking six. Not his best start, and he has certainly cooled down in his last handful of starts (last night's gamescore of 58 goes with his 62 against the Dodgers and 58 against the Cubs. In the eight starts previous to that, his GS were 80, 80, 58, 69, 68, 57, 68, 76.

The Astros now stand at 71-76, five games under .500 with 15 games left. 10-5 needed for .500.

We've been talking a lot about Brad Mills' impact on this team in the second-half, and here is one Justice's sentimental mush pieces on the Manager.

The focus will start shifting to 2011, and many will be wondering how far the Astros can go. I do not think .500 is a bad target. The Astros have done well if they can keep in sight of that mark until mid-way through the season. Then they seem to motor in in the last two months of the season. I still think we are two pieces away from becoming a contender, but no real means of getting the missing pieces, with little in the FA market worth getting. I think we need to sort out SS and LF. If we cannot get rid of Lee, we need to get him away from the meat of our lineup. Even with his 20+ home runs, he is providing average offense for a left fielder. Keppinger, a man with little or no ISO, has a higher OPS than Lee. Johnson and Wallace might provide good production in the 5 and 6 holes, but we need someone behind Pence at 4.

The rotation could be stellar if Paulino and Norris could step up and both be number 4 level starters or better. I wouldn't be surprised though, if the ZIPS projections for 2011 have Myers, Happ and Rodriguez at a significantly lower standard than we've seen from them the last two or three months. Basically only Keppinger, Pence and Johnson are providing 20+ runs above the replacement level for their positions (that ignores defense the ones I'm looking at), but it will look better next season without Matsui or Feliz, and hopefully Lee, although trading him just won't happen.

There is very little to do in the bullpen, and it will be the same, or pretty much the same as last year. Getting to .500 in 2010 will be a good statement of intent for 2011, and hopefully beyond.

Will the real J.A. Happ please stand up?

A good win for Brewers, a bad loss for Astros

So last night's game was a bad one to lose. 5-0 down, then 6-5 up, you felt going into the ninth that the Astros would wrap this one up. Think again. Lyon blew the save in the 9th, and Matt Lindstrom (with a teeny bit of help from Jason Castro) gave the Brewers an 8-6 lead in the 10th.

I'm blaming Carlos Lee for all of it, and will continue to blame him for everything else that goes wrong on this ballclub until his useless ass has left us. Somehow the Astros let Dave Bush be perfect against them for four innings before putting six runs on the board in the fifth. In the 65 games prior to last night's encounter, we had scored six runs or more only 17 times.

Still, they got it done in the fifth inning, at least they were doing so, until Lee stepped up with Pence on first and Keppinger on second. With Johnson on deck and Wallace in the hole, he then hits a tailor made DP ball to third base, ending the inning. No attempt to even beat the throw at first, he merely waddled down the line. 90 feet? Looked like a mile.

Still, credit to the Brewers for pounding Happ out of the game pretty early, scoring three in the first on two home runs from Rickie Weeks and Ryan Braun. Happ then retired 9 of the next 10, before the Brewers kicked him out of the game in the fifth, and was replaced by Henry Villar. Bogusevic came up in a good spot to bring the Astros within one, Paulino came back with a scoreless inning after a long injury layoff, Melancon and Byrdak combined for the seventh, while Abad pitched the eighth. Then the wheels fell off.

And FanGraphs wasted no time in proclaiming that Happ's peripherals had caught up with him. For just one start. Its sort of ironic, that on a day when I wrote this piece on TCB, expanding on my criticism earlier this week of Jon Heyman's piece on the Manager of the Year bashing people for not using statistics, I'm now going to spend three paragraphs explaining why the use of statistics in Happ's case is wrong.

Basically Happ walks far too many people, and many feel that his major league performances have seen the lefty over-achieve big time. His ERA might be 3.24, but Jack Moore and other sabermetric proponents feel that will go up, to match his FIP (4.31) and xFIP (4.72). They argue his .258 BAbip is unsustainable, since he does not strike out a lot of guys, and he has been lucky that a disproportionate amount of balls put in play have turned into outs. If you want to get under the nose of a fangrapher, and tell him Happ is a no.2 starter. FIP and xFIP take into account HR/FB ratio, and would argue that Happ has been lucky that the majority of his fly balls have not turned into home runs.

While there is all a grain of truth in all this, Happ may genuinely be good at not giving up the big hits. Obviously he got hurt against the Brewers, but remember that, as poorly Milwaukee has played this season, their offense ranks first in home runs in the NL, second in ISO and third in SLG%. Happ did not pitch well, and he got rocked by a good offensive team. If you want to look for indicators as to how he will fare in 2011, I think the previous 12 starts should carry more weight than one start (he also got shelled against the Cardinals last month, in just one inning giving up seven earned runs at Busch Stadium).

As our current number 3 starter, I would not hesitate to say that he could have a ceiling as a 3.50 ERA pitcher. He may not be that good over his career, but there are not really any reasons to rule it out. If Norris and Paulino take the 4 and 5 spots next year I see no reason why our pitching staff can't aim for a combined ERA under 4.

As for the next two weeks, the Cincinnati Reds roll into town on Friday. Its nice to see Chris Johnson brushes aside any notion he's in the ROY hunt, and tabs Buster Posey for the award. The Astros may have lost the finale, but they still won the series, with great pitching performances from Bud Norris and Brett Myers.

I think someone quoted Zachary Levine in saying that the amount of close games the Astros have won lately has been unsustainable. We still need to score more runs, and I think Lee has to be moved out of the number 4 spot in the lineup. His numbers just do not merit it, by any stretch of the imagination. His OPS is lower than Keppinger, who has little power (good amount of doubles though). And even Bourn, our leadoff hitter, is only 15 points behind Lee's OPS. That should be sending warning signals to any manager.

Myers, Astros top Brewers 4-2

Myers is 7-0 at MMP in 2010

Brett Myers continues to exhaust the superlatives, pulling out another gem, while the Astros offense took its time in kicking in, it came up with enough wins to give the rightie his 12th win of the season. He netted a 70 game score, and has been typical of his recent outings, he goes 6 or 7 innings and allows one or two runs, and occasionally three. He has just typified consistency over the past three or so months.

After June 29th he has lost just once in 14 starts, in which span the Astros are 10-4 with him on the mound, while he's got a 2.03 ERA. Look at his last 14 gamescores since July 4th: 57, 73, 64, 71, 84, 59, 46, 66, 56, 59, 71, 47, 70. Game score is a crude measurement, but it shows that while Myers has been great in not allowing too many runs, his performances have fluctuated quite a bit. The 84 against the Cubs was impressive and there are still four other scores 70 and above against the Cardinals, Cubs (twice) and the Mets.

David has the Astros finishing 79-83, but I'm more optimistic and think the Astros can snatch .500 at 81-81, and are now 6 games under .500 at 69-75 with 18 games to go. Here's my scenario: Astros 1-1 with Brewers to finish off the series, then 2-1 Reds, 3-1 Nationals, 3-0 Pirates, 1-2 Reds, 2-1 Chicago. That is still 12-6 over the next three weeks and the Astros will still have to play very good ball, but they have played hard over the last two months, and with the exception of the Reds, who are close to clinching their playoff place, the rest have nothing else to play for.

Chris Capuano pitching tonight for the Brewers, facing Bud Norris, and it is a face I thought had been DFA'd by the Brewers ages ago, after he literally broke mid-way through the 2006 season, and seems to have made no appearances in 2008 and 2009, whether through injury, or bumming it in the minors. Happ will face Dave Bush tomorrow in the series finale.

Jeff Keppinger had a great game last night, going 2-2 with three walks, raising his slash-line since being activated to .314/.438/.390. You will never get much power from Kepp, as his ISO on the season is .104. He doesn't hit for a lot of power, but then again, neither did Matsui, but Keppinger does usually run deep counts, and makes the opposing pitcher work for his outs. Richard Justice provides this stub on the Astros infielder.

Still no reply after tweeting Jon Heyman on the subject of his travesty of a manager of the year list. What is it with some sports' writers and lists. What do lists accomplish? Another near fautless performance by the bullpen, which Melancon coughing up a run before order was restored by Henry Villar (September callup) Abad and Matt Lindstrom, who is either being eased back into the closer's role, or Mills wanted Lyon to get the night off. It astounds me how well the Astros have done in tight contests. If you look at the last 65 games, where the Astros have gone 38-27, you look at the runs they have won by in those 38 games and you get this:

Margin of victory (runs)	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	12
# of times achieved	10	3	11	5	3	4	1	1

Astros square series with Dodgers, Brewers next

Wallace was 2-3 and was intentionally walked, which is encouraging

Before we get on to last night's festivities, I would like to make a few points on this article by SI's Jon Heyman. It is these sorts of pieces that make me mad, mad, mad. Basically Heyman praises Buck Showalter (which I do not mind), but then he ranks the best Managers of 2010. Lets have a look shall we? Bud Black (Padres tied-7th best winning percentage in majors), Ron Gardenhire (Twins 3rd), Joe Maddon (Rays 2nd), Dusty Baker (Reds 6th), Ron Washington (Rangers 9th), Terry Francona (Red Sox 10th), Bruce Bochy (Giants tied-7th), Charlie Manuel (Phillies 4th), Joe Giradi (Yankees 1st), Bobby Cox (Braves 5th).

Do you see a pattern emerging here? And he gets paid to write about baseball. Jeebus. Is anyone else awestruck by the sheer stupidity of this article? I guess not, because the awards always go the teams with the best records, rather than the best managers/rookies/pitchers/batters/fielders. Now a lot of them are the right selections. I like what Dusty Baker and Bud Black have done, and I like Gardenhire, Maddon and Bochy, but come on. If you conduct a list of managers on win loss records, are you really conducting the sort of analysis that is required by a professional journalist?

Bob Geren has done a good job keeping Oakland hovering around .500, and Jim Tracy is doing a great job geeing up the Rockies. But the omission I'm most angry about, is Brad Mills. You and I know that Mills inherited a BLOODY MESS. And he has done very well to mop up that mess in a very short space of time. They started the season 17-34, but Mills has the Astros record at 51-41 since June 1st, even with the departures of Lance Berkman and Roy Oswalt. I'm not saying he should get all the credit, as Arnsberg, Bagwell and the rest of the coaching staff have put in a lot of hours, but if you consider the amount of rookies we've been winning with, Mills deserves recognition for that, and the fact that he has won a LOT of close games, and most of the time his bullpen management has been astute.

But Heyman would know none of this, as he and other national writers do not focus on middle-market teams such as the Astros, and limit themselves to East Coast big-market teams. Put him on the spot to name the Astros bullpen he wouldn't have a clue. Yet guys like Wilton Lopez and recently Fernando Abad and Mark Melancon have made great recent contributions. How can you call yourself a baseball journalist when you are ignorant on about half of the major league teams? I feel about this angry over the entire article. Opinions like this RUIN the BBWAA's reputation for bonehead voting. How can you write this sort of garbage, on a daily basis and get away with it?

Kudos to the Texans for their win over the Colts last night.

Ok, moving onto last night's ballgame. It was starting to look suspiciously like last week when we blew a 4-0 lead against Casey Coleman and the Cubs last week, but once the game was tied at 4 the bats came through and the bullpen kept the lead intact to level the series. The Astros staked out an early 4-0 lead with a 2-run home run by Hunter Pence and a 2-run single by Brett Walace, as the Astros turned their lineup over in the first inning. Then Nelson Figueroa ran into a bit of trouble in the 4th as Jay Gibbons hit a 3-run shot before Loney tripled and scored on a sac-fly. Carlos Monasterios left the game early and was replaced by Jeff Weaver (in a Dodgers uniform, which still gives me shudders after his shutout of the Astros in 2005 with Roger Clemens on the mound for Houston). Jason Castro then scored Wallace, before being driven in by Geoff Blum to give the Astros a 6-4 lead.

Chacin, Byrdak, Fulchino, Abad, Lindstrom and Lyon then combined for 5 1/3 shutout baseball, levelling the series at 2-2. The Dodgers played the Astros pretty hard, but they could have won all of the games, as they went into the ninth all four nights either ahead, or with the scores tied. They need to go 13-6 over the next 19 games to reach .500.

Bourn reached base twice and stole two bases off Brad Ausmus, the former Astros stalwart, who received a warm round of applause, and will be retiring at the end of the 2010 season. Michael continues his torrid month, while Pence recovered from starting the series 1x12 to post a 3-4 night with a walk. Wallace is also working hard with Bagwell to correct his footwork during his swing, where he is swinging the bat before his front foot is set. Props to Seriously? on TCB, who spotted the glitch weeks ago.

 Brett Myers takes on Chris Harverson in the opening game of the Brewers series, with Norris and Happ likely to follow.

Astros blow another game with Dodgers

Now that Hunter Pence and Carlos Lee have cooled down significantly, it is becoming increasingly difficult for the Astros to fashion close-game victories. Such was the state of play in the last two nights as the Dodgers busted out of a six-game losing streak to take victories by 4-2 and 6-3, both of which were tied going into the ninth innings.

I might be splitting hairs a bit, because the Astros could have easily won both games. After winning the first game of the series on Chris Johnson's 3-run home run off Ted Lilly, they then lost on Friday in 11 innings, then yesterday 11 September, on an A.J. Ellis bunt Brandon Lyon's throwing error cost the Astros three runs.

Yet if the Astros would have scored Michael Bourn, and they really should have in the 10th inning off Octavio Dotel, they might be leading the series 2-1 going into the finale this Sunday afternoon. With one out, Bourn tripled off Dotel, but Keppinger and Pence struckout to end the inning, and Fernando Abad surrendered the winning runs in the 11th.

Pence is 1x12 in the series so far, while Lee is batting .154 in September, and has a grand old .458 OPS in his last 13 games. He has also run his WAR back to -2.2. At least Bourn is starting to turn the jets on, as his splits over the last 28 days (.330/.398.447) 14 days (.366/.440/.561) and 7 days (.474/.542/.895). 11 walks is not outstanding in 25 games, but for now it will do, as a single and a steal is nearly as good as a double. He also has three triples in the past week, and still leads the league in steals with 47.

The Dodgers are not chumps (I've wanted to use that adjective all week), and they are a .500 team. With a few of our players struggling offensively, we are still there or thereabouts in every single game. Last night was our heaviest defeat since that 5-1 loss to the Mets and R.A. Dickey two weeks ago, and we have lost by more than two runs just seven times in the past 39 games (we've only lost 16 during that spell).

Wallace homered again which is encouraging, although Johnson was scratched from last night's lineup with tightness or soreness in his back. Nothing major. Felipe Paulino is expected to be activated today, but will probably not be thrown into action straight away.

A shout out to the Tri-City ValleyCats who progressed through the first round of the NY-Penn League Playoffs, beating Batavia in the best of three. You can follow them here on twitter, and they are worth following, since you have guys like Chris Wallace, Austin Wates, Dan Adamson, Ben Orloff, Bobby Doran, Michael Kvasnicka, Thomas Shirley (and probably many more). I gather they beat the Brooklyn Cyclones in game 1 of the Championship game last night (in what is another best-of-three series).

Nelson Figueroa faces Carlos Monasterios looking to split the four-game set with the Dodgers. The Astros then see the Reds then Brewers roll into town, as they continue their penultimate homestand of the season, before heading off to Washington, Pittsburgh and Cincinnati, and then playing Chicago at MMP to end the season. That is 20 games left to get close to .500 (the Astros would have to go 13-7 to end the season level at 81-81).

For some reason, some Astros fans were trying to break a Guiness World Record by getting 10,000 people to play the harmonica simultaneously.

Johnson, Astros Swagger to Victory

It was not a win I thought the Astros would get, but last night, as they have done so often recently, they came through in the big spot, and beat the Dodgers 3-2. Since the Astros had scored just one earned run off Ted Lilly in 13 innings this season, it was a fair bet that they would struggle to score runs off him. That proved the case until Chris Johnson smacked an absolute no-doubter to left-centre, bouncing onto the train tracks.

14 wins out of 18 games now and counting, with J.A. Happ out to test his superb record at Minute Maid Park against the tricky Hiroki Kuroda. The lefty is 4-0 with a 0.86 ERA at the Juice Box, having allowed just three runs in five starts (the caveat here is that one of those starts was for Philadelphia on 9 April). Still it is mighty impressive.

Although it is clear our pitching is still carrying us, as we've averaged 3.6 runs a game during that 18 game stretch, dating back to the start of the Phillies series, and we have only managed more than five runs just twice. Seven of those 14 wins (half) have been got even though the Astros scored only three runs in all of those games. In this period, however, the Astros pitching staff have reduced their opponents to a ridiculous 2.2 runs a game.

Since June 1st our 50-39 record has come the fact that we've scored 4.2 runs a game, but conceded 3.7 runs. It is a good differential, but we could give our pitchers more leeway, as we have had a lot of tight games recently. We've come very far in the last three months, but I am not sure how much of this will translate into 2011. We've been riding continuous pitching hot streaks from pretty much all of our pitching staff. Happ has been electric since coming over from Philadelphia, Wandy has been dominant since mid-July, Norris had a string of four or five starts, Myers is the exception as he has gotten better and better, and while Figueroa does not dominate, he gives the Astros at least an even chance to win, which is what you need from your #5 starter.

Also, our bullpen has been phenomenal in nailing down leads, if you ignore the fiasco against the Cubs last week. Fernando Abad and Mark Melancon have taken the weight off Wilton Lopez' shoulders in the 7th and 8th innings, while even Tim Byrdak is pitching well. In his last 36 appearances for the Astros, he has allowed runs in just one appearance, having a 0.79 ERA over that stretch of 22 2/3 innings.

Johnson needed that home run last night, as in a month his BA (not a great indicator, again) from a lofty .361 to .323. In between, a period of 27 games he batted .274, pretty good for a rookie, and an average .694 OPS. I wonder if Johnson will be like Pence, and not draw many walks, as his OBP is only 30 points higher than his BA, although if he could maintain his .350 OBP and his .500 odd SLG%, that would be all we would need from him. He's batted the majority of the season at #7, and I think this has helped him because there is not too much pressure in that spot. Perhaps pitchers have gone after him too much, and offered him good pitches to hit, so we'll see how he adjusts if Brad Mills has him at #5 starting next season.

In fact, in 114 plate appearances batting at 7, Johnson's slash line is an incredible .435/.437/.713, amounting to a 1.160 OPS. He hit 10 doubles and 6 HR in thoese 28 games batting 7th, which would amount to 58 2B and 35 HR aggregated for a 162 game season. Not likely we will see that sort of production from CJ ever, but there is untapped potential there, and it great for him to come up out of the blue and help the Astros be a better team. His 1.8 WAR is in stark contrast to Pedro Feliz's -2.1 as an Astro, and not content just to ruin one team's chances, he has a -0.3 mark with the Cardinals. Sweet.

Astros take another series from Chicago

Incredibly the Astros have won every series against the Cubs this season, and all of them have been won by two games to one. Brett Myers dazzled again, shutting down Chicago with ease. His season ERA decreased to 2.93,  while he is 6-1 in his last eight starts with an even smaller 2.02 ERA. FanGraphs gives praise for the Astros rotation, albeit very briefly. The most startling Myers statistic is his ERA with Humberto Quintero catching, which is 2.03 in 13 games, while he has allowed opponents to a .563 OPS. Myers must be one of the best, if not the best pickup of the offseason.

Abad, Lindstrom, Byrdak and Lopez combined to pitch the last two innings, keeping the shutout intact for a 4-0 win.

Pence hit another home run, taking his season splits even higher, and he could conceivably reach the 100 runs, 100 RBI and 30 HR plateaus before the end of the season, while his BA is 11 ticks under .300. These don't mean an awful lot at this stage of the season, but they should boost Pence's confidence coming into 2011.

The Astros have been unbelievable this last two months, recovering from their 17-34 start, by winning 13 of their last 17 games, and going 22-14 recently. Meanwhile the Astros improved their record against NL Central opposition, and are 38-25 against teams in their own division. They have yet to play series with the Brewers, Pirates and two with the Reds. They could conceivably get their record against the Reds back to a winning one, but they would have to win all six games, as they are 2-7 against Cincinnati so far this year, their only negative record against NL Central opponents. They are 10-2 against the Pirates and 6-6 against the Brewers. The Astros are now seven games below .500 with 23 to play.

For those who were hoping Lee had turned his season around, El Elaphanto has belly-flopped again, batting .129 over the past eight games.


Looking at Manzella's splits after coming back from that injury, he has done better. His splits before 212./.259/.254, are not nearly as good as those after his return .279/.295/.302. Some of this has been down to his.343 BAbip, although he's only drawn one walk in 45 plate appearances. Still he will not be drawing many walks batting seventh or eighth in the lineup. I still do not think he has the defensive capabilities to lock down a position and also contribute very little offensively. Yet we have nothing brewing in the minor leagues, so I would look for Wade, either to swing a deal in the offseason or see if he can pick up something in the Rule V draft.

Bud Norris has a tough assignment, facing the Dodgers and Ted Lilly tonight. Lilly has been very good since joining the Dodgers, winning five of his seven starts in LA. And he was tough on the Astros when he was with the Cubs, as the Astros scored just one run off him in two starts (in 13 IP), although the Cubs managed to lose both games,  and both were against Myers (Berkman hit that grand slam in the second matchup off Andrew Cashner). The Astros lost their first two games against the Dodgers earlier in the season.

Continued buzz around Barret Loux, the undrafted Arizona pick from this year's draft. If Wade and Heck can pick him up for $1-1.5m, I would be happy with that gamble, although I have not seen his medical records, and you do not know how scared the Diamondbacks were about possible injury, or they were just taking the safe option in not drafting him. He's a Texas A&M guy, so he is local, and while Wade has had a look at his medical records, he has not gone further, at this point anyway.

Astros split first two games with Cubs

Michael 3-4 3 RBI, SB, 2 runs scored Tuesday

David's post was pretty scathing after the Astros 5-4 loss to the Cubs on Monday afternoon, but even though it bugged me, I understand that you lose some of those games every blue moon. It was a poor loss, and the players really should have knocked Casey Coleman out of the game innings before they actually did, but unless you are the 2008 Phillies, eventually you'll lose a game in the late innings (what were they, 79-0 when leading after 8 innings that season?).

There was some daft play in Monday's game, including an awful lot of swinging in hitters counts. I think Lee had at least four occasions where he swung in hitters counts and got nothing for it. The rookie Coleman ended the night on 117 pitches, and just 60 strikes. Considering the Astros walked five times off him, four runs just was not enough, and it came back to bite us. CJ hit a solo shot, and Bourn reached four times out of five, but Wandy made quite a few mistakes, while the usually reliable Wilton Lopez coughed up the winning runs. Not a great Labour Day game overall. Darn Cubbies.

Yesterday's ballgame saw another decent start from Nelson Figueroa (who had to throw 111 pitches last night in 5 innings), another decent pickup by Ed Wade, and Brett Wallace hit his first major league home run. There has been talk on TCB that Wallace has some timing issues with his swing, and is actually swinging before he has completed his stride, and this is reducing his effectiveness at the plate. Whether or not he is working on that with Bagwell is anyone's guess. The best performance of the night was Michael Bourn, who was 3-4 as he was a home run shy of the cycle, stealing his 47th base of the season, while also picking up 3 RBI. Keppinger also got a couple of key knocks in the game.

"It's been a process day-to-day," Wallace said after recording his first major league home run. "I'm not swinging the bat as well as I always wanted to, but I stayed confident." The guy has got a massive lower half, and once he gets the issues that are mentioned above sorted, he should hit for a decent among of power at first base.

While Lee seems to have a few games where he will come up with a crucial hit, there are several like last night' game where he will go 0-4 with a GIDP. After Fulchino was pulled after one batter, Byrdak (2IP), Melancon and Abad (1 IP each), finished the job after Figueroa's exit.

In the last week our pitching is starting to cool down a bit. Wandy had his first average start in at least three months, he gave up 3 runs in one inning on Monday, whereas he had not coughed up that many runs in a SINGLE GAME since July 19th, when he gave up 5 runs to, you guessed it...the Cubs. Figueroa did his best last night, but it was an average start, while Brett Myers allowed 3 runs in 6 innings to Arizona last week (that was the game the Astros lost). It is not disastrous, but the offense will have to start picking up if we want to keep on winning at the pace we have been recently.

Pence has been on a tear recently, and he was rewarded with the NL Player of the Week Award, and since August 1st, his slash line, .333/.361/.583, and his numbers have certainly been buoyed by a .369 BAbip. Over that 35 game period, he has 27 RBI, 7 HR, 11 2B, 2 3B and 28R. The Astros are 21-14 in that stretch, and this is the sort of production we need to see more of from Pence in the future.

Brett Myers starts in the rubber game tonight against Randy Wells, 7.05 CT. The Astros reach 19th on SBNation's power rankings, and have 18 of their remaining 24 games against the Cubs, Pirates, Dodgers, Brewers and Nationals. I think the other six are against the Cincinnati Reds, so those games should be fun. There is certainly the chance we might get back to .500.

If you have not caught the first two Crawfish Boxes podcasts, make sure you do so. The guys do know a ridiculous amount of stuff, and a lot of it pertains to the future of the ballclub, as they discuss the top 10 Astros prospects, and the 2010 draft. They touch amongst other things on Jordan Lyles aggressive moves through the system, and whether Delino DeShields will have 20 HR power. There is plenty to chew on, and two hours worth of content for Astros fans. If you don't know who Ariel Ovando is, you should give it a listen.

I'm not too hot on how fast Jordan Lyles has been moved through the minor league levels. At 19 he is already at AAA, a level below the majors. I do not see any point in rushing him to the major leagues. At this point, as to where we are as a ballclub, we are not just one piece away from being a contender. We might be a .500 ballclub or slightly better next season, but like 2009, we would need a lot of things to go well. Do I want us to rush a 19 year old up to the majors, just so he can be a no.4 starter, and ruin his development as a pitcher? No. As good as Lyles is, he is not say the level Hirsh was in 2006, because Hirsh had dominating stuff. Lyles is an outstanding talent, and his changeup is a great weapon, but he still needs to improve his fastball, and secondary pitchers to be able to get hitters out in the majors. He has struggled a bit since being called up to AAA Round Rock, but that just might be fatigue this late in the season.

Astros take series from Snakes

J.A. Happ got his fifth win in an Astro uniform, and Hunter Pence continued his fine streak of form as the Astros narrowly overcame Arizona 3-2 to take the series from the Diamondbacks. They now head over to start a series with the Cubs this afternoon on Labour Day.

Since getting shelled by the Cardinals at Busch Stadium, Happ is 4-1 in his last six starts, compiling a 2.21 ERA. His hits allowed (23) is good in 40 1/3 IP, but his walk rate (15) still looks rather ominous. However, you can't argue when opponents are batting .181 against him, and the only two mistakes he made last night resulted in solo home runs for Diamondbacks hitters. On his way to 107 pitches in seven innings he had to work around jams in the fifth and the seventh.

Happ caught a lucky break in the first of those situations, as John Hester tried to score from second on an infield single by Stephen Drew. Keppinger knocked the ball down on the outfield grass, and gunned down Hester to end the inning. Happ then struckout Hester and Ryan Roberts to get out of a seventh inning spot with two men on. Reunited once again Lindstrom and Lyon shut-down Arizona in the last two innings to keep the Astros one game ahead of the Brewers in 3rd place of the NL Central, and move them eight games under .500, all of which is giving them a legitimate shot in reaching the mark by the end of the season.

Meanwhile you have to be happy with what Hunter Pence has achieved in the second half of the season. He has moved his OPS+ to 117 and his OPS to a respectable .818 on the season. If you ignore his horrific April, since May 1st (the Astros are 55-55 since then), his slash line is .302/.348/.512, with 74 runs, 20 HR and 72 RBI in 110 games. Since August 1st, his numbers are even better, recording a .970 OPS in that time period.

Increasingly it has been Carlos Lee and Hunter Pence who have been shouldering the offensive burden over the last month, as they seem to be driving in most of the runs, although Michael Bourn has been hitting better recently, while Sanchez got to third base twice last night, but was stranded both times.

The Astros bullpen is looking well set-up for 2011, with Lyon, Lindstrom, Lopez, Melancon and Abad making a nice quintet.

Yesterday, with all this talk of a rift between Colby Rasmus and Tony LaRussa whether Rasmus would be moved out of St. Louis at the end of the year, and whether the Astros would be interested in acquiring him. While he might not be an open spot for him, Rasmus has a lot of potential, although if he were to be traded, there would likely be other teams offering more in terms of prospects than we ever could. Still, I wouldn't be surprised if Wade goes out and tries to find some more pieces via trades in the off-season.

Since June 1st, the Astros are 47-38 and have won 11 of their last 14 games. They are facing Casey Coleman for the Cubs today, and are 8-4 against the Cubs this season. Wandy Rodriguez is 1-0 with a 4.85 ERA against the Cubs this season in two starts, while in his career he is 5-4 with a 3.98 ERA against Chicago (15 starts), but has a 6.14 ERA at Wrigley Field.

El Caballo tramples Snakes underfoot

The Diamondbacks eventually got to Bud Norris, and in a big way, but their two run lead was erased on a 3-run home run by Carlos Lee off former Met Aaron Heilman. The bullpen pitched 4 1/3 scoreless for the Astros, and they levelled the series with a solid 6-5 win over Arizona.

Coming into the series the Snakes had scored 54 runs in 7 games, so the Astros pitching staff has done well to at least half restrain them. It was never going to be an easy series with the Diamondbacks in that sort of form.

I love when Carlos Lee comes up with these sorts of key hits, but I think Greg Lucas is in denial with this recent blog posts. Carlos Lee is (I was going to say cancer, but that might be a bit harsh) a roadblock to this club succeeding in the future. He is the elephant in the room. True he may not finish 2010 too far shy of 30 HR and 100 RBI, but this is the 21st century, and Bill James and others have shown us the way.

Lee's slash line since August 1st might be a respectable .293/.321/.500, with 30 RBI in 32 games, but his -1.8 WAR does not lie. A lot of that is down to his atrocious fielding as a LFer, but if you take that away he's still only giving you nothing more offensively than a replacement left fielder. His UZR is a terrible -13.9 for the season, and his bat in the middle of the lineup is hurting the team.

I'm already taking a peak at 13th round draft signing in 2009, JD Martinez as a potential replacement for Lee. But considering he was only drafted 15 months ago, and he has only spent 3 months at AA Corpus Christi, we might have to wait unitl 2012 to see him in an Astro uniform. If we cannot trade Lee, then he has two more years on his contract. It would not hurt as much to bench him for his last season in 2012 if he has not shown significant improvement over this year.

Bourn stole his 45th bag of the year, but had his 12 game hitting streak snapped last night. The bullpen's efforts were very impressive, with Chacin, Melancon, Abad and Lyon combining for 4 1/3 scoreless.

Meanwhile Hunter Pence is the subject of today's TCB treatment by David Coleman. About two months ago I was considering whether Pence should be included in the Astros future plans, and as David says, he has been  consistent over the last four years, and if he can improve his defense, then he should patrol right field for a few more years to come. I'm not sure who, but someone discussed the fact that Pence has filled out (put on muscle) in the last two years, and this has hurt his agility when it comes to playing the field.

The New York Times talks about the job Ed Wade has done over the past few months. Mr Higdon muses about the 2011 payroll, and with four spots on the rotation nailed down, the outfield spots, catcher position and corner infield positions, it remains for Ed Wade to sort out who is playing in the middle of the infield, and fill a bench spot/ bullpen spot or two. Not a heavy winter.

The Astros claimed utility infielder Matt Downs from San Francisco and there is the suggestion that he or Keppinger might fill the 2B spot next year. Whether the Astros are that happy having Manzella/Sanchez fighting for the shortstop position is questionable. Manzella might bring great D, but he will never bring you anything offensively. If Wade can swing a trade for a young, relatively down shortstop, under team control for a couple of years then I would do that. Someone in the mold of Arizona's Stephen Dew would do nicely. I say in the mold of, because Drew's agent is the devil himself Scott Boras. THAT would be an arbitration hearing I would like to see. But you get my gist hopefully.

His main priority will be seeing if he can work out a contract extension for Wandy Rodriguez, while sorting out the arbitration claims of Bourn, Pence and Lindstrom.

He will also need to sort out who takes the fifth spot in the rotation, if Felipe Paulino is fit and healthy, then he can fit back in, but if not, then you have to find a placeholder. Brian Moehler is probably starting to wear a bit, and I'd rather he didn't pitch as a starter on a regular basis again. Lyles can wait another year in the minors before being called up, and we'll see him fingers crossed in the 2012 rotation.

If Wade can somehow shift Carlos Lee, and it seems like he wants to stay in Houston, he would have to DH in the AL, and it would be a major salary dump, but I just do not see any team biting. Sigh.

J.A. Happ going this afternoon against Rodrigo Lopez 3.10 CT start today. A winnable matchup, although Happ has had most of his success for the Astros at MMP.

Rodriguez posts Astros' second-straight shutout

Wandy Rodriguez seems to have banished all thoughts of his first half performance in 2010, where he compiled a 6.09 ERA in his first 14 starts. Since then he has picked up just two losses in 13 starts, compiling an impressive 1.61 ERA in that timespan, reaching six innings in all of those starts. Opponents are batting just .202 against him, while he has walked just 18 batters in 13 outings. He lost to Florida while striking out 10, but has beaten the Phillies and Cardinals in his last two outings. In the process he has lowered a one balloon high ERA down to a moderate 3.71.

Either Wandy is bumping up his trade value, or he is hankering for a contract extension with the way he has been pitching. It depends if Wandy is comfortable staying in Houston, or would prefer to face other challenges in the majors. Wade will put the feelers out (I think he has already), but things will not heat up until the off-season. I wonder how scorched Wandy was when he lost the arbitration hearing last winter, and had to settle for $5m last year (£3.24m).

The Cardinals are dealing with this horrible dip in form, but just like the Phillies, they came into a series with the Astros struggling to score runs, and had the bad luck to run into one of the hottest (if not the hottest) pitching team at the moment. The loss dropped them seven behind the Reds, and four behind Philadelphia in the Wildcard hunt.

Incredibly, the last time the Astros pitched back-to-back shutouts while allowing less than four hits was way back in 1986, when they did it three days on the trot (one of them was Mike Scott's famous no-hitter).

Pence came up with the big hit, albeit a bit fortunate, as Colby Rasmus might have caught Pence's shot to centre field. However the ball looped over his head, and trickled behind the flag-pole on Tal's Hill, allowing two runs to score on Pence's triple (see photo).

I was talking a bit about Happ yesterday after a terrific start in an Astro uniform, and I asked OremLK why his FIP (4.05) and xFIP (5.11) are very high considering his solid ERA (2.89) in 2010. "His FIP is higher because of his strikeout to walk rate, which is not good. Another way to look at this is is that his BABIP is un-sustainably low. But regardless, it's the same basic issue: FIP thinks he's gotten lucky. xFIP normalizes home run/fly ball rate to league average. So his xFIP is even higher because of that (Happ has been very good at preventing the long ball despite giving up lots of fly balls, which some think is a skill, and others think is luck."

I could have summarised it, but that gives you the jist. Happ's success is due to keeping the ball in the park, and despite walking a bunch of guys and not striking out a load of people. We will see if it is skill, or he is lucky in 2011.

If you did not hear, Mike Downs, Wesley Wright, Brian Bogusevic and Brian Esposito are on their way to Houston, as it is officially September, with Jeff Keppinger and Matt Lindstrom not far behind them, as both are close to finishing their rehab assignments.

The Astros finish August with a 17-12 record, even if they did happen to lose three times on Wednesday. Nelson Figueroa and Jeff Suppan battle it out this afternoon, 1.05 CT start. The Astros will attempt to sweep the Cardinals, and improve their season record against them to 10-5. The Astros are now 35-24 against NL Central teams.

Another random link, courtesy of Astros County. Steve Phillips talks about Brad Mills being a good fit for the Astros in passing. Farmstros is also talking about the possibility of Barret Loux, which I would personally love to see happen (the D-backs pick, who was made a FA when he did not get offered a contract, due to injury concerns).