Changes Mike Barnett is expected to make

Can't walk, won't walk

So the main problem with the Astros last year was their abysmal walk rate (and not far behind that was their inadequacy to hit home runs, to get hits of any description).

Their BB% was the joint lowest in the MLB with the Baltimore Orioles at 6.9. But if Barnett starts asking his hitters to be more patient, then will that have a knock on effect towards their hitting. With guys like Carlos Lee, they are far too stuck in their ways to change their plate discipline without changing their entire approach in the batters' box.

Lee, Pence, and come to think of it Johnson are free-swingers. That is their strength. Here is the BB% tabulation for the Astros expected 2011 lineup:

Hitters	BB% (career)	BB% (2010)
Carlos Lee	7.2	5.7
Michael Bourn	8.9	9.8
Chris Johnson	4.1
Jason Castro	10.1
Hunter Pence	6.8	6.2
Brett Wallace	5.0
Clint Barmes	5.0	8.1
Bill Hall	7.8	8.9

On the face of it, Hall and Barmes look like promising additions to the lineup.  Their BB%s are decent enough, but both numbers should come with a warning. First Barmes. For the majority of 2010 he hit in the number 8 slot in the Rockies lineup, basically meaning pitchers didn't have to throw him anything decent over the middle of the plate with the pitcher on deck. Maybe that affected his power numbers too, as his ISO dropped from .195 in 2009 to .116 last year.

Hall batted 7th, 8th and 9th for the Red Sox, but be warned, his K% is horrendous, hovering around the 30% mark.

So the lineup will lack a big bopper, something it has had for years, and will have to work as a single unit to score runs. This may work well, or it may all break down and in that case we will be stuffed. Lineup construction. Good luck with that Brad Mills. The lazy option might be to put Pence at 3 and Lee at 4, but depending on how Hall looks in spring, I might be tempted to put him at 3, start Barmes at 2 with Castro at 9, swapping the two if Castro starts the season well.

Also I wonder how much help Mike Barnett is asking for from Milt Thompson, the former Phillies hitting coach, and now the Astros' baserunning and outfield coordinator in the Astros' minor leagues.

5th starter's job main theme for Astros' ST

"I know those words, but that sign makes no sense."

Lou Bezjak has this piece on Jordan Lyles as he looks to win a place in the Astros' rotation in 2011. Would still like to see Lyles start the season at Oklahoma and perfect a couple of things. Hopefully Arnsberg can give him a list of some sort and liase with the pitching coach for the Redhawks, currently Burt Hooton (to the best of my knowledge).

I'm looking at Fernando Abad's minor league innings pitched totals, and they don't seem conducive to him become a full-time starter in the majors. Might take a bit of research to see what sort of precedent there is for someone pitching that little innings in the minors and successfully jumping up to 150 in a season. Give me a few days on that and I'll pop something on SB Nation Houston.

As for Ryan Rowland Smith I'm really not too sure what to expect from him in 2011, but to judge him on his 2010 would seem pretty rash.

Not unduly surprised that Pence won his arbitration hearing against Astros, and he will be payed $6.9m in 2011 compared to the $5.15m that the Astros had countered with. Pence isn't likely to hold  grudge over being taken to arbitration, he is not that sort of person, but if you consider he has another three seasons before he can be a free agent that means another two arbitration processes he has to go through.

He could easily see his salary bumped over $10m in his last arbitration year (2013) if his numbers stay around the same level. Then if the Astros want to lock Pence up beyond that how much will they have to shell out, $12/13m a year? Does that make sense for a 30-year old outfielder, who has already experienced defensive issues (at least the sabers say so), and isn't strictly speaking a middle-order bat?

The other issues will be seeing how Clint Barmes and Bill Hall fit into the lineup and how far Jason Castro and Brett Wallace can improve on last season. It will be an offense with a lot of moving parts and to be successful in 2011 Houston fans will have to hope the lineup is better than just the sum of its' parts.

Bourn now a Boras client

Michael Bourn has obviously decided he is too loved by the Houston faithful and needs to do something to get in their bad books by doing something like hiring the man many believe is the Baseball Antichrist. Solid move Michael.

Anyway, three days until pitchers and catchers report and then we can properly start ramping up the coverage until the start of the 2011 season.

There are a few nice subplots, like how Barmes and Hall will fit in, whether Wallace will take the 1B job as his own, and who will be starter #5 in the rotation. Fernando Abad seems to have joined the fray with his Dominican Winter League performances, while the Astros are still maintaining Jordan Lyles has a shot to make the rotation this season.

Sorry there has been little content up here in the past three weeks, but it is harder to find the energy to write copious amounts when you are working 8-6 and spending two hours commuting on top of that.

Watch this space next week.

How likely is it Wade will flip Myers or Rodriguez?

"Oh my God I forgot about the Game!"

Yes the Superbowl is tonight. Big deal in America isn't it? Got your beer and nachos ready?

Now that the Astros have locked up Wandy Rodriguez on a long-term deal a few more of the New York media have begun sniffing the cheese and decided that they would quite like Wandy in their rotation given the alternatives are not looking so rosy, with Freddy Garcia and Bartolo Colon given invites along to Spring Training.

Look at his numbers! He's done nothing in five years since stealing, ahem...I mean winning the 2005 Cy Young award. Colon didn't even pitch last year. I think any sane manager would try and acquire something better than that.

But the pressure is off Wade now. He doesn't have to trade Myers or Rodriguez and I think he would be inclined to keep them without any adequate replacements waiting in the wings. But, say one of Pendleton or Aneury Rodriguez steps up this season and looks the business in the rotation, and given that Lyles will probably be challenging for a rotation spot in 2012 if all goes well it might make sense if the right offer comes along, to look good and hard at what teams would be willing to offer for Wandy. Rather than be forced into making a transaction with someone because he was scared of losing Rodriguez when the season is up, Wade is not the one desperate to make a deal.

Looking over at St. Louis over the next few weeks will be interesting, considering Albert Pujols imposed deadline on the Redbirds to sign him to a new deal. If Pujols wants Rodriguez money it is hard to see how the Cardinals can give it to him, considering they have Carpenter and Holliday on pretty fat salaries. If I'm right, signing Pujols to that sort of money would mandate moving Carpenter on, not great losing a pitcher of his caliber, but considering they have a rather depleted farm system, the return from someone like New York might be big (Carpenter is owed $15m next year and has a club option for 2012).

Craig Calcaterra asks, "How Screwed are the Yankees" and it boils down to, if Burnett has another year like 2010, then pretty screwed.

Here's my weekly piece for SB Nation Houston on the respective situations of Clemens and Pettitte.