Heyman's out to get us 2012: volume one

So I've been out of the loop this week and quickly screened through Astros County, they have a great interview with Stanford's Mark Appel. Unsurprisingly Heyman is taking potshots at the Astros again, possibly because they don't pay enough money to Scott Boras. So in other news Heyman's still got it in for us.

Positives
Claimed Fernando Martinez off waivers
Taken some good fliers on non-roster invitees.
Picked up a solid catcher in Chris Synder
Swindled Bud Selig out of 50m dollars.
Didn't blow all their money on an overpriced veteran, who will likely breakdown halfway through their contract.
Didn't sign any innocuous middle relievers.

Negatives
Didn't blow all their money on an overpriced veteran, who will likely breakdown halfway through their contract.
Moved to the American League.
Failed to unload Carlos Lee, Wandy Rodriguez and Brett Myers.
Got our uniforms censored.

What else ya got?

Wallace Gonzalez? Shrugs shoulders

So I'm a few days late on this, but Minor League Ball has this up on 2011 draft class impact, which features George Springer (ok), and Wallace Gonzalez. So Gonzalez was a 29th round pick, and MLB has this to say:

Gonzalez has a really long swing but he generates a ton of leverage with it. He has a huge power ceiling and is a good athlete but it could open him up to K a ton.

Hmmm...Trawling through Google I find this from May where Gonzalez is ranked as the seventh best HS first base prospect in the upcoming draft.

We’re issuing a major upside alert with Wallace Gonzalez, a rare first base prospect that can lay claim to legit five-tool upside. Those tools run the gamut from “wow” (plus raw power and a bazooka – not literally, that would be a “WOW!” tool – attached to his shoulder) to “hmm, didn’t expect that” (watching a 6-5, 220 pound man with 45 speed is cognitive dissonance personified). With great upside often comes great rawness, however.

The article also lists the fact that he was a football star for a reason most teams might have shied away from him in earlier rounds.So we will keep an eye on him in 2012.

Tweet me any additional information, links, opinions and I will add them.

Astros Fanfest links

Well done to everyone who covered the Astros fanfest a couple of days ago. We have an unbelievable array of Astros coverage, and I'm excited to see it once again in action over 2012.

Tales From the Juice Box
Bud Norris - the veteran?
A Glimpse at the future from the past

What the Heck Bobby?
Q&A with Mills, Norris and Martinez
The smartest guys in the room
Everything old is new again
Astros FanFest: fan questions
Some final thoughts on FanFest

Astros County
Astros FanFest 2012: Kool-Aid edition 
(honestly, they have an unhealthy obsession with that beverage).

Climbing Tal's Hill
Astros FanFest 2012: Talkin' baseball with the Astros front office

The Crawfish Boxes
Astros FanFest running diary part I
Astros FanFest running diary part II
Tim has some of the audio up on TCB too

Farmstros
Water has returned to Minute Maid Park


If I missed out anyone give me a shout on Twitter.

A week ago I wrote how Jeff Luhnow should make a play for Mike Gonzalez. He's cheap for a Scott Boras client, is looking to rebound and could be flipped in the summer if he does well. MLB trade rumors obviously thinks so too, I just wish they'd give me an attribution because I've got a big ego.

In other pretty big news Milo Hamilton has decided to call it quits after the 2012 season. With Milo Hamilton we have been truly lucky to have one of the premier voices commentating on our franchise. However I think it is the right time to find someone who could become the new voice of the franchise, and could compete against the awesome JD & Brownie in the TV booth.

We're getting rather close to Spring Training and camp will open for pitchers and catchers in five days. FIVE.

Cafardo: Astros still surprised at lack of interest in Rodriguez

So the Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo mentions the Astros Wandy Rodriguez again in his quick hits:

7. Wandy Rodriguez, LHP, Astros - If there’s a surprise in the Houston front office this offseason, it is the lack of interest in him, considering the Astros would assume a fair portion of the $36 million remaining on his deal. Rodriguez, 32, went 11-11 with a 3.49 ERA for a 106-loss team in 2011. He is due to earn $10 million this season, $13 million next season, and if traded, the option on his contract becomes a player option for $13 million. He pitched 191 innings last season. The Astros also are surprised at the lack of interest in righty Brett Myers, who would appear to be another good back-of-rotation piece for a contending team. Myers pitched 216 innings last year and 223 2/3 in 2010.

Mo money, mo problems. We're in a buyers market when it comes to pitching. The introduction of Trevor Cahill, Gio Gonzalez and Matt Latos took three potential buyers off the market, as did the signings of Mark Buerhle, C.J. Wilson, Yu Darvish, etc.

When Edwin Jackson and Roy Oswalt were struggling to find contracts, it was asking a bit too much of Jeff Luhnow to shift Rodriguez and Myers and their contracts, and expect a good return. The Astros will likely have to swallow all of Myers remaining guaranteed $14m and watch him play out the rest of 2012 as an Astro, and hope a market develops for Rodriguez in July.

But for the Astros to get what they want for Rodriguez in July he will have to do something pretty similar to his late run of starts in 2010, registering that magical 2.03 ERA in his last 18 starts of that year. Is that realistic? Nope. Luhnow might have to temper expectations on a potential haul, and aim for unpolished guys like Domingo Santana.

Incidentally Brian McTaggart has the full transcript of a Q&A held with Jeff Luhnow on Wednesday. The money quote is about payroll, where Luhnow says this has not factored into his considerations, and if a move worked over their 3-5 year strategy they would consider it. The transcript is also interesting because it contains quotes our favourite Stephen Goff used to base what he seemed to present as exclusives.

The question was whether Rodriguez would start the season with the Astros, which Luhnow answered in the affirmative. He does not state that Wandy will remain with the team for the entirety of the 2012 season.

Cafardo also mentions Jed Lowrie, who you can chalk up as being in 'the best shape of his life' at least as far as the offseason is concerned. Wrist injuries are bad. Very bad. When you're swinging a big piece of wood wrists are pretty darned important. Fingers crossed he can stay 100% throughout 2012.

Shift of ownership may present opportunity to get J.R. Richard's #50 retired

This week I shook my head when another Astro, this time Fernando Martinez, claimed the number 50 jersey. I'm hopeful Martinez gets an opportunity in Houston to realise some of the potential that was attached to him as a mega-prospect with the Mets. I wonder whether he knew what he was doing when he chose/ was given that number. Probably nothing.

This isn't like Jose Lima, god rest his soul, who was panned for turning up to the Mets 2006 spring training camp wearing number 42. We should really have #50 hanging by the rafters by now. Astros Daily has the number proudly hanging with a couple of others at the top of its page. No Astros fan would even bother arguing against it. There is universal support throughout the fanbase, even among those who never saw Richard pitch (I wasn't anywhere near born in 1980, his last year in the bigs).

There is no need to recycle his story, others have told it far more eloquently than I ever could. Jason Chandler, started this petition years ago (I think I signed it around the time it had 500, it now has over 3,000 and really should have far, far more). My petition to fire Tim Purpura got 3 signatures in contrast, one of which was mine. With the help of the entire Astros blogging community, I think we should get that up to 43,826 (the capacity of Minute Maid Park by the end of the 2012 season).

What prompted this little diversion was this small post from Jayne on another chance meeting with Richard.

Unless you expect Lowrie to fail, Renteria makes no sense for Astros

So Jon Heyman thinks Edgar Renteria would be a good fit for the Astros, Cubs and Brewers, just as I believed he said about Ryan Theriot earlier in the winter. Le sigh....

Jason Hirsh: The one that got away

John Sickels looks at the pitching prospects from 2003-2006 that he gave an A grade to. Jason Hirsh is one of those guys (sniffle).

Jason Hirsch (2006): 32 games, 29 starts, 166 innings, 5.82 FIP, peak WAR 0.9, total WAR 0.2. A few moments of success but trade to Colorado didn't help, topped out as a Quadruple-A guy.

The young big old righty savaged Corpus Christi in 2005, before doing the same to the PCL at Round Rock in 2006. At one point I think Hirsh had a monster scoreless streak going (or it was something like 50 IP with about 2 ER from recollection).

When you consider this pack of A and A- prospects include Felix Hernandez, Matt Cain, Zach Greinke, Cole Hamels, you see that Hirsh had monster potential.

Damn TANSTAAPP. Now about Jordan Lyles being the next Greg Maddux...

With Carlos Lee we've had our cake and eaten it

We will miss Carlos Lee when he's gone. Not only for the constant agonising about how much we're paying him, but for all the repetitive fat jokes that have been wheeled out on every occasion. Lee is the by-product of a long-gone era, when big bats were all the rage, and 30 home runs and 100 RBIs was enough to get you a $100m contract.

If only the Giants had out bid us this offseason, or Drayton McLane would have ponied up for Carlos Beltran two winters previously. For all his shortcomings, he has had four decent seasons and one abysmal one.

$81m was a lot to pay for 8-12 wins above replacement in the span of five years. There was a feeling that the Astros had to do something with the departures of Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte. There were questions and we needed answers.  It turns out Lee and Woody Williams were not the correct answers, but I know a lot of people shrugged their shoulders (me included) at the Lee signing and said 'Well he helps the lineup now, and we're probably going to regret this contract when he ages, but what else can we do?'

Chris Burke and Willy Taveras were starting to disappoint and management had its doubts in Taylor Buchholz and Jason Hirsh in the rotation. Back in 2007 we were a naive fanbase, myself included. Lee has provided us with a rather convenient lightning rod with everything that seemingly went wrong since 2006.

Morgan Ensberg never looked the same after a wrist injury in September 2005, Jason Lane proved himself a terrible replacmeent for Richard Hidalgo in right field, and very quickly the major league club as we knew it collapsed in on itself. After Hunter Pence the farm system shut down.

In other links,
MLB.com has this on the Astros top 20 prospects.
Keith Law has us at #27 for minor league systems (insider only).
And PECOTA is out, once again devilling the Astros as only they can.
If you have not read this piece on Randy Hennis you really should


Brett Wallace meanwhile is taking grounders at third base. I applaud the Astros for thinking outside the box, and there's nothing bad that can come of this. Heck, he might show himself to be competent there, he played at the position in the minors. But when his defense at first is already shakey, and he isn't the rangeist player, I have a hard time seeing this panning out. Prove me wrong Brett.

There is hope and foolish hope

I'm sure batting stance guy wasn't really suggesting the Astros could miraculously spring from last to somewhere near respectability, but expectations may start to rise. Sure some of this team could be good in 2012, but that is different from being a good team.

Even with the 56 wins we gained, we've lost three critical offensive players in Michael Bourn, Clint Barmes and Hunter Pence. Whether J.D. Martinez, Altuve and co. can fill the void straight away is debatable. However, it is also worth noticing that the front office has culled a lot of the crap.

Looking at position player's bWAR from 2011 here are the top 8:

Carlos Lee 4.9
Michael Bourn 4.4
Clint Barmes 2.9
Hunter Pence 2.7
Jason Bourgeois 2.3
Brian Bogusevic 1.5
Jeff Keppinger 1.2
Matt Downs 1.1

Of those eight we can assume that two of them, Lee and Bogusevic will start 2012 as everyday players (assume). Four are gone and the other two are super-utility bench players.

Now let's look at the bottom 8.

Carlos Corporan -1.3
Chris Johnson -1.2
Brett Wallace -1.0
Jason Michaels -1.0
Bill Hall -1.0
Angel Sanchez -0.4
J.R. Towles -0.3
Joe Inglett -0.3

Forgot about Joe Inglett huh? Of these, we can hope that only two of them get major league playing time, and that Johnson and Wallace achieve considerably more than they did last year.

I have a feeling that 2012 is going to see us with a lot of 0-2 bWAR players, with a few sneaking above that. These sorts of players are classed as substitute level replacement players and you need a few of these behind your front line starters but not an entire ballclub of them.

Of those that get playing time this year, you hope that they can go on in a year or two and develop into something much bigger, and players such as Martinez and Altuve have been defying expectations for years. Still, they're young, they're rookies, they're learning and they're bound to make mistakes and suffer horrendous slumps. We'll have to cope with that as this season unfolds. And that should be the fun of it.