Saturday, 21 April 2012

Lets take a look at those nine losses

Opposing pitchers:
Jeremy Guthrie
Tommy Hanson
Randall Delgado
Ricky Nolasco
Anibal Sanchez
Stephen Strasburg
Gio Gonzalez (L)
Jordan Zimmerman
Ted Lilly (L)

We made a lot of these games winnable. Yet every time we have lost by a sliver. Hopefully luck starts bouncing our way, and soon.

The weird thing about our scheduling is we have yet to face an NL Central opponent. And I don't want to give these guys an excuse, but a lot of these pitchers they will either have never faced, or only had a few ABs against.

The Astros will face the Brewers and Reds next week, so we can look forward to some more familiar faces then.

Home run drought
As Astros County tweeted earlier today, an early season power surge has been replaced with a home run drought of sorts over the past week. There were all those triples in the 11-4 win over the Nationals which we are grateful for, but seven games without a HR.

Who's catching who update
14 (15) starts in and this is how it looks:
Bud Norris: Castro 2, Snyder 1
Wandy Rodriguez: Castro 2, Snyder 1
J.A. Happ: Castro 2, Snyder 1
Lucas Harrell: Castro 2, Snyder 1
Kyle Weiland: Castro 1, Snyder 2 (including tonight's game, based on provisional lineup card)

Now you might put some of this down to lefty righty, since Snyder has caught all three games where the Astros faced an opposing southpaw, but not all of it. We'll keep on looking at this.

Can't hit lefties?
Interesting stat via Steve Campbell that Jed Lowrie, Carlos Lee and Chris Johnson are a combined 1x28 against lefties this season. SSS as usual, but looking at the Astros lefties, Brian Bogusevic, Travis Buck, Jason Castro and Jordan Schafer have a combined 24 plate appearances against lefties. Castro and Boggy are both hitting .500 in a smattering of ABs, Buck is hitless, while Schafer has a home run. Not sure what that proves but it's there.

As many have pointed out, Lee has crushed lefties over his career, and you would think that the numbers will right themselves over time.

Sunday, 15 April 2012

Brett Myers already been shopped

This morning I talked about Jordan Schafer and other things over at SB Nation Houston. The Astros patience at the moment is yards better than it was last year, upping their walk rate from 4.12 walks a game to 2.47 in 2011. Long may it continue.

Great win last night, and as most have pointed out on Twitter, it was the second time in 29 years that the Astros have won the game after being 3 or more runs down in the ninth.

Andy at the Houston Counterplot had some interesting things to say this morning. Originally his two gripes were people bitching about the manager and asking for the closer to be traded when the Astros are eight games into the season and are .500.

I'm guessing he was talking about this, where USA Today's Bob Nightengale Tweeted that the Astros are already shopping Brett Myers. Perhaps Jeff Luhnow thinks Rhiner Cruz is already ready to become closer (titter), or perhaps some teams are screaming for bullpen help on the open market.

Firstly, should we be constantly second guessing Brad Mills. Well, that's the fans job. I wouldn't begrudge anyone that. It makes the hours tick by.

Secondly, do I have a problem with shopping Brett Myers right now? I can't think Luhnow can really land something that good for Myers off the back of two saves and two appearances. And we would presumably be swallowing the majority of the $14m that he is still guaranteed. It would be unusual. Like Melancon if the pieces coming back eclipse what we would get from Myers and the Astros think someone can take his place (not Lyon, not ever), then its fine by me.

Wilton Lopez? Someone else?

Saturday, 14 April 2012

Astros finally have AAA depth

It may be early in the season, but the Astros organisation looks like it has two or three guys who could conceivably be in the major league rotation right now, maybe even four.

Apart from a first inning mishap Jordan Lyles coasted through seven innings, striking out seven and allowing no walks. Paul Clemens has started the season with two great outings, and Dallas Keuchel has yet to allow a walk or a run in 13 innings this season. Aneury Rodriguez meanwhile has had one great, one dodgy start, firing the Redhawks to a 7-2 start to the season.

Last night they gave Shelby Miller, the Cardinals' top prospect, his second bashing in a week. Fernando Martinez stole the show, mashing two home runs, including a grand slam. There are some other decent prospects there in Paredes and Wallace, but the rest is organisation depth.

So who is going to make it to the majors first? Clemens or Lyles? And who are they going to replace? Conventional wisdom says either Kyle Weiland or Lucas Harrell, but if someone desperate for a fifth starter tosses you a couple of really raw prospects for J.A. Happ, you have to take it right? Riddle me this: realistically is Happ ever going to be part of a contender in Houston?

It is right that Harrell and Weiland are getting their chance to show the Astros what they can do at the major league level, but you have to consider whether leaving Clemens or Lyles too long at AAA, when they are doing exceptionally well, will hurt their development. I would fall on the side of not much, Lyles being just 21 (Clemens being 24).

Keuchel is another matter entirely. Some of his starts were fantastic in 2011, but he ran out of juice late on and his stuff is often a puzzler. As Jayne points out he is not a 'sexy' pitcher, but he has induced 24 groundballs to 4 flyouts. That's a 6:1 ratio. Now all of this on all these pitchers is based on two starts, so it's easy to get carried away, still its all worth watching.

Three losses in a row
A frustrating three losses in a row for the Astros. Its a shame because we've seen some killer performances, notably from Jordan Schafer and J.D. Martinez.

Bud Norris will square off against Carlos Zambrano, former Cubs menace. Zambrano used to own the Astros, but off the top of my head he seems to have struggled the last few times out against us. He owns a 2.72 ERA in 32 starts and 34 games.

Jed Lowrie returns
Lowrie's first regular season game as an Astro saw him go 2-3 with 2 walks and a steal.

Altuve dropped down the order
Quite a few people were unhappy dropping Altuve in the order to eighth behind Jason Castro. Boy that's a tough one. I could see Altuve, Lowrie and Castro as all type 2 hitters at some point in the future.

As he told Brian McTaggart:

"I've been working so hard on being patient at the plate," Altuve said. "I don't really care where I hit, leadoff, second or eighth. I just want to come to the field and see my last name and go out on the field and do the best I can and try to help my team win."

Lets have a look at Altuve's major league OPS in each lineup spot:
First (20 PA): .816 OPS
Second (202): .640 OPS
Fourth (2): 1.500 OPS
Sixth (4): .500 OPS
Seventh (25) .768 OPS
Eighth (5) .000 OPS
Ninth (4) 1.000 OPS

Does this really tell you much? Not really. Remember Altuve is not yet 22, and I'm perfectly ok having Lowrie second and Altuve eighth, batting with less pressure on his young shoulders, just as the Astros did batting Chris Johnson seventh in 2010.


Draft watch
Stanford's coach allowed Mark Appel to throw 149 pitches last night. That'll end well.

Thursday, 12 April 2012

Back to .500

The Astros have started the season exactly where I asked them to: to be .500 when they finished their opening homestand. They have yet to be blown away, losing their three games by two, two and three runs.

As David said this morning, the importance of Batting Average is accepted as not being that great in this day and age, but it still is nice to see a lot of our lineup above .350 after the first week (Schafer, Martinez, Altuve, Johnson and Carlos Lee). Any more of Lee's hot hitting and he will land himself a contract extension (kidding).

Between Lee and Martinez, they have 13 of the club's 26 RBI. That shows the guys in front of them are getting on base at a decent clip.

Right Field
Things to remember when judging playing time between Travis Buck and Brian Bogusevic. Buck is only four month older and was in fact picked just 12 picks after Bogusevic in 2005. That's quite interesting. Someone needs to ask Buck if the pair have discussed that.

Mike Fast is reading you
Tim did a great job in getting Mike Fast to answer some really good questions. But among all the goodies was the revelation that he sifts through Astros sites every morning. Which is a good thing. Its dangerous if you shut yourself from outside opinion. Just because you listen to different point of views, and people who disagree with you, doesn't mean you have to compromise. Obviously we are on a honeymoon period with the new front office. But that doesn't mean we should stop asking the awkward questions, because they won't make 100% right decisions.

Jed Lowrie set to return
Marwin Gonzalez has done well as a fill in, but there are a lot of very high expectations on the shoulders of Lowrie. A lot of TCB writers, me included, have Lowrie to be the standout player in the Astros lineup. I also had Paul Clemens as the Astros ROY, and he has to get to the show first. As I write this I see Brian Bixler has been optioned to open up a spot for Lowrie. And we need him to get 140 games in this season. Because if he does he could provide greater production than Clint Barmes did last season.

Two dazzling starts for the Redhawks suggest that he could be knocking on the door very soon if people in the Astros current rotation have a bad few weeks. I'm interested to see how Lucas Harrelll does in the Miami opener and whether he can replicate his first start, or achieve anything close to what he did on the second day of the season.

Monday, 9 April 2012

Pitching, Pitching and more Pitching

Last year's rotation disappointed. Nelson Figueroa was awful, as was J.A. Happ. Wandy Rodriguez and Brett Myers did not hit the heights they reached in 2010. Bud Norris did as well as could be expected in his first injury free full season.

Defensive mishaps in the first game aside, this was a great series to open up the season. The Astros starting pitchers allowed just 2 earned runs, both on one swing of the bat off catcher Willin Rosario off Bud Norris, after one of three bizarre at bats with Jason Giambi, where the past-his-prime slugger walked each time he faced Norris.

Did not see much of the vaunted 2-seamer last night, but Norris really worked his slider and changeup well, mixing up the batter's eye-levels with his fastball, touching 95 at times. Some people during the game voiced concern at his fastball sitting at 91-92, but this is probably just a trade-off for greater command. If he drops down to 89 later in the season when fatigue kicks in then you start to worry.

Some massive moments last night, including a tough throw to end the sixth by Jason Castro, as Norris K'ed Rosario. With runners on the corners, the ball bounced by Castro who recovered to throw his opposite number out at first. Castro was also unlucky to see Michael Cuddyer rob him of extra bases with Johnson on first base during the seventh. A poor play by Jordan Pachedo allowed Carlos Lee to reach and get on second, tieing the game and setting the stage for Brian Bogusevic's go-ahead hit.

However we have seen some shaky performances in the bullpen. Brett Myers was lucky that with Cuddyer reaching second to lead off the ninth, Rosario could not or did not want to bunt him over to third, when a sac-fly would then tie the game.

Rockies fans will gripe Tracey for the poor lineup. Apart from Tulowitzki the lineup was not overtly worrying. Rosario will be an elite talent very soon, but all the Astros pitchers did pretty well against them.

Don't expect this to last, but enjoy it while it does...54 more wins to equal last year's total.

Sunday, 8 April 2012

Guess who's catching tonight?

Good first win under our belts. We can go for above .500 for the first time since July 2009. Quick things to discuss: J.D. Martinez, Marwin Gonzalez, Lucas Harrell.

Gonzalez could be a keeper if he can show defensive consistency off the Astros bench. Last night was good to see. We knew there was a crispness to Harrell's pitches but last night exceeded my and most people's expectations. Jordan Schafer's home run was nice to see, if he can augment speed and on-base skills with 10 or so home runs a season, we will all be rather chipper with what he provides at center field.

J.D. Martinez might have stolen the show with a 2-run home run, but it was one that crept into the Crawford Boxes, and he did manage to ground into two double plays.

The two main things I wanted to discuss prior to tonight's game were: Bud Norris' 2-seam fastball and playing time at catcher.

As long as Snyder and Castro stay healthy, I expect a 40/60 split in the latter's favour. Snyder caught Harrell last night, and I might wager that he will catch Kyle Weiland when his turn rolls around, leaving Castro to catch Rodriguez, Happ and Norris. Lefty/righty matchups will interfere in some of this. Harrell already spoke of Snyder's play-calling, and it makes sense to have to experienced catcher call the games for the wet-behind-the-ears rookies. Maybe. I will keep tabs on that on a week-by-week basis.

Bud Norris. He's good. Excellent. He could be dominant. His slider is one of the game's best. At present he probably throws it too much. Throwing sliders the amount of time he does could lead to injury. Any chance to increase his repertoire should be welcomed. Hence find what David Coleman, Astros County and FanGraphs have written on the new 2-seamer Norris seems to be displaying in 2012.

I think Norris should be leading the line for the next half-decade or so for the Astros, and when he hits arbitration next season I would consider a Andrew Freidman type buy-out of his arbitration years, plus another two of his free agency years, allowing a measure of balance and pre-planning over the franchise's future.

UPDATE: Greg Lucas says Brad Mills has said nothing is set and the catching rotation will evolve. I can dig that. It is something for management to assess and see which partnerships gel.

Saturday, 7 April 2012

The speedy return of Mills logic?

You might have seen liberal use of the hashtag #millslogic last season, especially in use of platoon players, which Mills seems to love.

Tongue in cheek, Astros County discussed leaving Fernando Abad in (a LHP) to face Troy Tulowitzki, a rightie. Of course hindsight says Mills should have put a rightie to close the inning off, since Tulo hit a monster HR off Abad, and the fact that generally Abad stunk against RHP in 2011, holding them to a 1.258 OPS in 2011, which is absolutely retched.

So Mills had these RHP in his bullpen:
Brandon Lyon
Brett Myers
Rhiner Cruz
David Carpenter
Wilton Lopez
having already used Fernando Rodriguez.

You probably don't want to jam your Rule Five pick in to debut against one of the league's best hitters on opening day, so we can scratch Cruz, and Carpenter is still pretty green, even though he retired Tulo in his one AB against him. Tulo is 1-4 against Lopez, hitting an RBI double off him.

But what about the big beasts, Lyon and Myers? Well, Tulo has crushed home runs off the pair of them, and had never faced Abad before last night. Was Mills even aware of this, and did this factor into his decision making? Maybe not.

I see this as Mills thinking he had a pitcher in there up to game speed and did not want to bring a rusty RHP off the bench to face Tulo. I'm reminded of Chad Harville's quotes after a game early in 2005 when he blamed a particularly terrible outing on being a little bit tired (I can't totally recall, but I think he threw eight or so pitches).

Not that I'm saying I'm right and AC is wrong, but its worth pointing out that these sorts of decisions are not as polarising as they first might seem.

Astros drop opening day to Rockies

I could cry and moan about last night's game, but I don't feel too bad having lost the game on defense. To know that the two main parts of the game went quite well, and to fall short on defense should drive me crazy, but for some reason it doesn't.

I liked that Brian Bogusevic hit a home run. I enjoyed Wandy Rodriguez allowing no earned runs. Bogusevic is an odd one, because he was a converted pitcher, but Tim and Sean and I have talked this thing to death, and I think we all believe he has something there, a combination of power, speed and defense at RF that could end up surprising a lot of people. Jason Castro's two walks were good to see, even if his defensive mishap was not.

You forget it, you move on, you retool and you're ready to go again tomorrow. Or today rather. Lucas Harrell against OAP Jamie Moyer. Either this was the way the rotation shook out, or Brad Mills has purposefully gone with Harrell over J.A. Happ as a RHP over a LHP.

Aneury Rodriguez struck out 9 in just 5 innings of work for the Redhawks, Ross Seaton had one of his better starts last night for the Hooks, some good offensive performances for the Jethawks, and the Legends had a game to forget.
Farmstros has the audio from the George Springer grand slam from Thursday night.

Friday, 6 April 2012

Young but not that young!

So Brian McTaggart tweeted that as of yesterday the Astros had the second youngest team at 27 years 301 days average age behind the Royals (27 years 155 days). I'm guessing this is with Lowrie and without Bixler, who is 29  whereas Lowrie is 27.

I remember writing a piece early last year when I talked about the Astros having the second youngest bullpen after the Royals, but I'm amazed we are that low, although I really shouldn't considering the amount of sophomores we have on the team.

If you consider the players who are keeping that number up (Carlos Lee, Chris Snyder, Wandy Rodriguez, Brandon Lyon and Brett Myers will be or could be gone by 2013), this club could be much much younger next season.

4 hours away...

Opening day is here

I'm going to attempt to blog at least something on here everyday. It will be less polished than what you may see elsewhere, but with my new job, its about all I have capacity for. Working for a newspaper can give you major copy fatigue, that's just how it is.

Big news last night was the grand slam George Springer whacked over the CF 25 foot high wall at High Desert for the Jethawks. Pleasantly surprised that the Astros #1 pick of the 2011 draft is starting at high A ball. I am optimistic that Springer, in a full season, can show how good he really is.

I think Kevin Goldstein said a few months back that he was one of only 4/5 guys with elite power and elite speed in the current crop of prospects. If all goes well (and not that we should get too hung up on prospect lists), but I expect him to crack the top 10 of quite a few lists before next season.

Jarred Cosart and Paul Clemens both had reasonable starts last night, while Lexington's game was postponed. I'm still on the hock, so I'm sifting through What the Heck Bobby and Farmstros where they both provide info on who has not been assigned to a roster yet.

Jay Austin, Xavier Cedeno and others are injuried, and I suppose Jack Armstrong Jr and Vincent Velasquez, are not quite ready to go yet, which leaves Ariel Ovando, who turned 18 in September.

Strange to see the Astros go with 13 pitchers, especially when two of their position players are questionable (Schafer and Lowrie). Still, it is nice to see them hang onto both rule five picks in Rhiner Cruz and Marwin Gonzalez and give them a look in during the first few weeks. Gonzalez could very well start today with Lowrie not sure about his thumb.

Wandy Rodriguez takes on Jeremy Guthrie in tonight's opener against the Rockies. For all those heading to Minute Maid Park, have a good one. Hopefully we see the Astros climb above .500 for the first time since 2009.

In other associated Astros news, BMac provides a look into the Astrodome and its current predicament.