Saturday, 12 May 2012

George Springer's big night

This is going to get a lot of use this season.
A brilliant 1-0 win against the Pirates last night, coupled with a four home run performance from George Springer in a Lancaster double header was great to see.

His numbers are obviously a little buttressed by last night's game, but stats wise he's where you'd like him to be adjusting to A+ in his first proper season in pro ball. Should these sort of performances necessitate a callup to AA Corpus Christi? Hmmm...probably not, although I'm a little conservative with callups.

Bud Norris bringing his A game
The win against the Pirates was a great response after another brutal series against the Marlins, including another crushing extra innings loss (that makes three against just the Marlins in 2012).

Bud Norris has now pitched three excellent starts in a row, getting out of the sixth inning unscathed and clamping down in the fourth with a man on third base early in the inning. Norris has now gone two starts without allowing an earned run, and the start before that held the Mets scoreless for six before allowing three runs in the seventh inning.

The rest of the Pirates series
Outside of Wandy Rodriguez we need to get these sort of pitching performances on a regular basis to be a competitive club. If you're only getting excellent starts two days out of five, a mediocre offense is going to struggle to bail out starting pitchers three days out of five.

I don't fancy J.A. Happ's chances against Charlie Morton tonight, but Wandy may have the edge on A.J. Burnett Sunday, since the ex-Yankee has had four rough starts. Be warned though, his K/9 is 10.9, so the Astros have to take advantage of hitters counts.

The Pirates, who entered the game level with the Astros in the NL Central, have the fifth lowest ERA in the NL, but have so far struggled to score runs, ranking dead last in walks and runs in the league.

Fifth-starter's spot
The schedule is currently being kind to the Astros in regard to the fifth-starter's spot, meaning that slot will not come up till Tuesday again, with both Aneury Rodriguez and Jordan Lyles having good starts in recent weeks. But Rodriguez, who was sent back down to the minors following his start, will not be eligible for Tuesday since he has to spend 10 days in the minors before being recalled. Lyles pitched on Thursday night, so you would figure he would get the call, although I would not assume anything with this club anymore. Hell they might let Brandon Lyon try his hand as a starter.

Other quick notes
The Astros bullpen have gotten themselves a name "The Regulators" and have had a solid few weeks. Brett Myers now has 9 saves and has allowed a solitary run all season long, even if he has just seven strikeouts.

What's the best way to handle a slumping J.D. Martinez? According to Brad Mills its to pull him from the lineup and give him a few days off. I'm cool with that. Give him a chance to rest, look at some videos, relax and let him get back into the zone, rather than throwing him to the dogs.

Back to the minors very quickly. Delino DeShields Jr has 20 steals so far and at this pace he could end up with 70/80. He will turn 20 in August and is drawing a ton of walks. Here's hoping his bat will come around in the next few months.

Monday, 7 May 2012

You can't win 'em all folks

Well this was an extremely frustrating game of baseball, but the gulf in pitching ability between Adam Wainwright and J.A. Happ was clear for all to see. Happ was all over the plate, and as Sean Feist pointed out on Twitter, Happ is running scared on the inside portion of the plate to right handers. He just cannot establish the inside part of the plate and can't jam hitters.

Obviously coming into this game considering Wainwright has been rusty having missed all of 2011 fans were looking for a sweep. Now he's 10-1 against the Astros with a 1.93 ERA in 93 1/3 innings, in 18 games and 12 starts. And the Cardinals are a pretty darned good team, considering their playing without Chris Carpenter and Lance Berkman at the moment. The Astros hit so many weak groundballs it is a miracle they grounded into only two double plays. All eight of their hits were singles and only Travis Buck drew a walk.

Still, we reset and try our best for the Marlins series, sending Wandy Rodriguez to the hill tonight. Jarred Cosart will make his spot-start for the Redhawks tonight, while Mike Foltynewicz will go for the Legends, so plenty to watch. The Astros will face a tough trio in Carlos Zambrano, Anibal Sanchez and Josh Johnson. Bags of talent, and very unpredictable.

Jack Armstrong Jr has Tommy John
Well, we knew Armstrong was a punt in the long grass and a risky draft. He's now out for this season and probably most of 2013, undergoing Tommy John surgery two weeks ago. Vincent Velasquez has yet to materialise, and will likely start in short season ball (or so we can hope), but at least he was drafted out of high school. Tropeano and Folty's success in Lexington soothes not having the two aforementioned playing at the moment, but they are two arms I was really high on when healthy.

With Ross Seaton going the way of the dodo and Tanner Bushue not far on his heels, we'll get into another situation when Lyles, Keuchel, Oberholtzer, Clemens, Cosart and co. graduate where we have little pitching depth in the organisation. Behind that you're panning for gold with Ruben Alaniz, Kyle Hallock and Adrian Houser.

Trade Candidates
Ken Rosenthal is talking about the Astros, bless him:


“Our objective is to aggregate as much talent as possible, as quickly as possible,” new general manager Jeff Luhnow told me last week, at the start of what became a 5-1 homestand against the New York Mets and Cardinals.
“If we have pieces on our club that are in demand by other clubs and we get enough future value for them to make up for the short-term loss, we’ll consider every opportunity.”

Brandon Lyon is mentioned alongside Myers, Rodriguez and Lee. If Luhnow can shift Lyon he should be given the Congressional Medal of Honour. Well, Ed Wade did get something of value in return for Pedro Feliz so perhaps anything is possible.

Sunday, 6 May 2012

Lose-Town? This is Win-Town

Does winning engender a positive attitude, or does a positive attitude lead to winning. It's one of those chicken egg, egg chicken things. Andy talked about the 4-1 comeback against the Marlins as evidence that this team is different from that of 2011.

Their winning a lot more. They've reeled off five straight wins, two against the defending champions, raising their W-L record to 13-14. A sweep would take them to just two games behind the Cardinals.

Having played exactly a sixth of the season, they are already nearly a quarter of a way to their win total for 2011.

Bashing Brad Mills
One other point Andy raises, is it right to constantly second guess Brad Mills? I recall writing a post on TCB towards the tail end of 2010 saying that Mills deserved consideration for manager of the year considering what he had achieved with what he had. By the same token I gave him a fair blasting through most of the 2011 season. I do feel Mills sometimes reverts to the book when he's not quite sure what to do. As much of a shellacking as we gave him last season we have to praise him for revving the players up for 2012.

Still, second guessing managers is half the fun of the sport and I won't stop doing it, albeit using some statistical backing whenever I argue my point.

Making trades
Another thing I do agree with Andy is that I would like to see the Astros win as many games as possible. But unlike last year and the year before making trades may not mean we are automatically weakened. Just look at the Mark Melancon Jed Lowrie and Kyle Weiland deal. Not only has Lowrie been a great addition (even over Barmes at SS), but pushing Brett Myers over to the closer's role has worked spectacularly well.

Melancon meanwhile has been kicked down to AAA after surrendering 11 earned runs in 2 innings of work for the Red Sox. In nice symmetry, he's throw 6 2/3 scoreless at Pawtucket, since removed from the melting cauldron that is Boston. Go figure. Humberto Quintero has cooled off for the Royals after his scorching first week and Jason Bourgeois is already in the minors.

Still, if someone makes you an offer you can't refuse for Brett Myers or Wandy Rodriguez, you have to take it don't you? Whether Paul Clemens or Dallas Keuchel can fill the immediate void straight away is very questionable, considering Rodriguez's early results. We've talked in the past about how dangerous it is to limit yourself to acquiring major-league ready talent in any prospective deal, but the fans need something to cling onto in the here and now, a reason to show up in the ballpark. If you show them you're a .500 team in the early season and then start getting rid of major pieces in July, you risk jeopardizing all the marketing you've put into getting fans back in the park. Still, the Astros have to make the right decisions for the future of the franchise, and I believe Jeff Luhnow has the nouse to get those decisions correct.

There are so many closers either getting pulled out of their roles or injured (Heath Bell being the latest in Miami), I'd have to assume GMs come calling for Myers sooner rather than later.

Austin Wates, left field?
I notice that Wates, who played most of his games in CF last season, and a moderate chunk in LF then RF, has played 19 of his 27 games in left field in 2012 (4 he has DH'ed). Is this an admission that J.D. Martinez is going to be spending the majority of his time DHing from 2013 onwards with his creaky knees?

Run differential
The Astros have now outscored opponents on the season by 21 runs through 27 games.


Saturday, 5 May 2012

Miscellaneous Saturday morning notes

Classy Cardinals fan at last nights game (h/t reillocity)
Great game last night and always a joy to beat the Cardinals. Jose Altuve's second inning blast was enough, Lucas Harrell pitched a decent ballgame and for once the bullpen did exactly as it was supposed to. Brett Myers nailed down his seventh save, lowering his ERA to 1.04.

True, the Astros were a little lucky that Allen Craig's throw to second base sailed abysmally high, setting the stage for Altuve. But right now you have to be buoyant over our middle infield in Altuve and Jed Lowrie. Both have OPS+ of 162 and we are getting big and small contributions from up and down the lineup.

Redbird medicine
Bud Norris' first five starts of the season have not been too great, so perhaps what he needs is a game against the Cardinals, who he holds a 2.37 ERA against in 10 starts. J.A. Happ will round off the series against Adam Wainwright. Happ still leads the club with 31 strikeouts. A puzzler.

Michael Bourn trade
Jordan Schafer has been a pleasant surprise this season even if he has faded a little bit over the past week. His .352 OBP is still quite good, as is his 11 stolen bases, good for a 1.1. bWAR. Bourn meanwhile in Atlanta has had a monster April, leading the league in hits, holding a .394 OBP and a 1.6 bWAR, good for third in the NL.

When will Jordan Lyles debut?
The Astros now have the second and third youngest players in the NL in Lyles and Altuve behind Bryce Harper. While Altuve is making waves, Lyles has yet to start this season. The Astros have an offday on Thursday, so you figure Lyles will start either the opener of the Marlins series on Monday or the next game on Tuesday depending on which game Wandy Rodriguez starts.

Throwback Uniforms
Even Craig Calcaterra of Hardball Talk was taking notice of the sweet Astros throwback jerseys displayed on Friday home games. Pretty sweet. Via Andy at the Houston Counterplot Uni Watch looks in depth at them.

Minor league shuffling
After four impressive starts at Corpus Christi, Jarred Cosart has been called up for a spot-start in Oklahoma City. Despite a 2.84 ERA he has 13 walks in 19 innings (6.2 BB/9), yet he has allowed zero home runs, a decent recipe for success.